BirdAnalyst
Species · South Dakota · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Dickcissel Population Trend in South Dakota

All statesGrassland birds

Dickcissel in South Dakota has declined: down 41% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-41%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
56Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Dickcissel Trends in South DakotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Dickcissel in South Dakota. See the full index history below.

Dickcissel Population Forecast in South Dakota

If the recent trend holds, Dickcissel in South Dakota is projected to fall about 23% by 2030 — from 15 in 2025 to a central estimate of 11 (95% range 0.00–27). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±36%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-23%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
11Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–2795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±36%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Dickcissel in South Dakota is projected to fall about 23% by 2030 — from 15 in 2025 to a central estimate of 11 (95% range 0.00–27). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±36%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026120.0027
2027120.0027
2028120.0027
2029120.0027
2030110.0027

Dickcissel Survey Routes in South Dakota

Routes recording Dickcissel in South Dakota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Geddes10520251967
Chamberlain8920111967
Ft Thompson8120111967
White Lake5920111967
Gettysburg5820231969
Lacreek5820251991
Tripp5720251967
Broadland5520171967
Roswell5420141967
Howard5220251970
Lane 25020142000
Crow Creek4420231967
Rosebud3220111967
Lennox2920251967
Promise2920151971
Owanka2620221967
Ottumwa2320251967
Lane2219991967
Winner2120251968
Volunteer2020251967
Gorman2020101992
Raymond1920211967
White River1920141994
Forbes1820251967
Hayes1820241990

Dickcissel Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascoloradodelawaregeorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamarylandmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniasouth-carolinatennesseetexasvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.