BirdAnalyst
Species · North Carolina · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Dickcissel Population Trend in North Carolina

All statesGrassland birds

Dickcissel in North Carolina has edged down: down 21% on the route-weighted index since 1994.

-21%Since 1994TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
13Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
23YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Dickcissel Trends in North CarolinaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Dickcissel in North Carolina. See the full index history below.

Dickcissel Population Forecast in North Carolina

If the recent trend holds, Dickcissel in North Carolina is projected to stay roughly flat through 2028, near 0.03 (95% range 0.00–0.09). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±114.2%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2028TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.03Projected 2028 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.0995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±114.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Dickcissel in North Carolina is projected to stay roughly flat through 2028, near 0.03 (95% range 0.00–0.09). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±114.2%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19912028
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20240.030.000.10
20250.030.000.10
20260.030.000.09
20270.030.000.09
20280.030.000.09

Dickcissel Survey Routes in North Carolina

Routes recording Dickcissel in North Carolina.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Waco420041991
Flay420051995
Monticello320182018
Jarvisburg 2220012001
Speed220162016
Rowland219911991
Mooresville 2220232016
Wilgrove220192009
Dortches120112004
Dudley120192019
Cayton120102010
Old Trap120162011
Youngsville120172007

Dickcissel Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascoloradodelawaregeorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamarylandmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniasouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.