BirdAnalyst
Species · New Mexico · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Dickcissel Population Trend in New Mexico

All statesGrassland birds

Dickcissel in New Mexico has increased: up 33% on the route-weighted index since 1984.

+33%Since 1984TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
15Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
30YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Dickcissel Trends in New MexicoNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Dickcissel in New Mexico. See the full index history below.

Dickcissel Population Forecast in New Mexico

If the recent trend holds, Dickcissel in New Mexico is projected to fall about 70% by 2030 — from 0.52 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.16 (95% range 0.00–0.43). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±451.3%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-70%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.16Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.4395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±451.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Dickcissel in New Mexico is projected to fall about 70% by 2030 — from 0.52 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.16 (95% range 0.00–0.43). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±451.3%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19692030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.150.000.42
20270.150.000.43
20280.150.000.43
20290.160.000.43
20300.160.000.43

Dickcissel Survey Routes in New Mexico

Routes recording Dickcissel in New Mexico.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Grenville1420251987
Farley520252005
Variadero520172016
Hobbs320152015
Angel Fire 2320252017
Sabinoso220192019
Roswell219921992
Cebolla120141984
Clovis120241993
Gallo Arroyo120072007
Bitter Lake120072007
La Plata119941994
Cooley Lake120231969
Logan120222005
Maxwell120252016

Dickcissel Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascoloradodelawaregeorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamarylandmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniasouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.