BirdAnalyst
Species · New Mexico · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Dickcissel Population Trend in New Mexico

All statesGrassland birds

Dickcissel in New Mexico has collapsed: down 76% on the route-weighted index since 1984.

-76%Since 1984TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
15Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
29YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Dickcissel Trends in New MexicoNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Dickcissel has collapsed in New Mexico: down 76% on the route-weighted index since 1984.

Dickcissel Population Forecast in New Mexico

If the recent trend holds, Dickcissel in New Mexico is projected to rise about 63% by 2029 — from 0.07 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.11 (95% range 0.00–0.34). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±492%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+63%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.11Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.3495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±492%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Dickcissel in New Mexico is projected to rise about 63% by 2029 — from 0.07 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.11 (95% range 0.00–0.34). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±492%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19692029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.110.000.34
20260.110.000.34
20270.110.000.34
20280.110.000.34
20290.110.000.34

Dickcissel Survey Routes in New Mexico

Routes recording Dickcissel in New Mexico.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Variadero520172016
Grenville320171987
Hobbs320152015
Farley220172005
Sabinoso220192019
Roswell219921992
Angel Fire 2220242017
Maxwell220192016
Cebolla120141984
Clovis120241993
Gallo Arroyo120072007
Bitter Lake120072007
La Plata119941994
Cooley Lake120231969
Logan120222005

Dickcissel Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascoloradodelawaregeorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamarylandmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniasouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.