BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 23 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Dickcissel In Prairie Hardwood Transition

All regionsPrairie Hardwood TransitionGrassland birds

Dickcissel in Prairie Hardwood Transition has fallen sharply: down 70% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-70%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
139Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Dickcissel has fallen sharply in Prairie Hardwood Transition: down 69% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Dickcissel In Prairie Hardwood Transition Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Dickcissel in Prairie Hardwood Transition is projected to fall about 32% by 2030 — from 4.2 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.9 (95% range 0.00–9.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±61.3%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-32%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.9Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–9.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±61.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Dickcissel in Prairie Hardwood Transition is projected to fall about 32% by 2030 — from 4.2 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.9 (95% range 0.00–9.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±61.3%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20263.00.009.5
20272.90.009.5
20282.90.009.5
20292.90.009.4
20302.90.009.4

Routes In Prairie Hardwood Transition

Routes recording Dickcissel in Prairie Hardwood Transition.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
GuilfordILLINOIS482023
Lake GalenaILLINOIS422021
MillvilleMINNESOTA422025
GrimmsWISCONSIN412021
N AndoverWISCONSIN362025
Hazel GreenWISCONSIN312025
FestinaIOWA302025
WiotaWISCONSIN242025
NapoleonOHIO232025
BrownsvilleWISCONSIN192025
Caledonia 2MINNESOTA172025
ViroquaWISCONSIN172023
CaledoniaMINNESOTA162012
AshbyMINNESOTA162021
Prairie Du ChienWISCONSIN162024
VickeryOHIO152025
GlenwoodMINNESOTA132018
Wis RapidsWISCONSIN132023
LagrangeINDIANA112025
LimestoneOHIO112025
HighlandWISCONSIN112025
Le CenterMINNESOTA92023
N BaltimoreOHIO92019
StetsonvilleWISCONSIN92023
KielWISCONSIN92025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.