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Species · BCR 25 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Dickcissel In West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas

All regionsWest Gulf Coastal Plain / OuachitasGrassland birds

Dickcissel in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas has fallen sharply: down 66% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-66%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
75Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Dickcissel has fallen sharply in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas: down 66% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Dickcissel In West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Dickcissel in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas is projected to rise about 107% by 2029 — from 1.9 in 2024 to a central estimate of 4.0 (95% range 0.00–10). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±107.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+107%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4.0Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±107.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Dickcissel in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas is projected to rise about 107% by 2029 — from 1.9 in 2024 to a central estimate of 4.0 (95% range 0.00–10). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±107.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20254.40.0011
20264.30.0010
20274.20.0010
20284.10.0010
20294.00.0010

Routes In West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas

Routes recording Dickcissel in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
MatoyOKLAHOMA1402000
SandbluffOKLAHOMA711995
PhillipsOKLAHOMA592008
IndianolaOKLAHOMA542024
PocolaOKLAHOMA502016
CanadianOKLAHOMA402017
AshdownARKANSAS292023
Mer RougeLOUISIANA182008
NatchitochesLOUISIANA171991
McalesterOKLAHOMA171991
BlancoOKLAHOMA142016
Coal HillARKANSAS132023
FillmoreLOUISIANA131989
GoodwaterOKLAHOMA82021
PushmatahaOKLAHOMA82023
WechesTEXAS82024
DerryLOUISIANA61989
Big CedarOKLAHOMA62024
AthensTEXAS62019
ChandlerTEXAS62004
MassardARKANSAS52022
HavanaARKANSAS52021
SimsARKANSAS52024
LockesburgARKANSAS52019
Poyen 2ARKANSAS52024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.