BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 18 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Dickcissel In Shortgrass Prairie

All regionsShortgrass PrairieGrassland birds

Dickcissel in Shortgrass Prairie has edged up: up 23% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+23%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
106Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Dickcissel in Shortgrass Prairie. See the full index history below.

Dickcissel In Shortgrass Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Dickcissel in Shortgrass Prairie is projected to fall about 53% by 2030 — from 18 in 2025 to a central estimate of 8.3 (95% range 0.00–17). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±46.4%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-53%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
8.3Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±46.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Dickcissel in Shortgrass Prairie is projected to fall about 53% by 2030 — from 18 in 2025 to a central estimate of 8.3 (95% range 0.00–17). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±46.4%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20267.90.0017
20278.00.0017
20288.10.0017
20298.20.0017
20308.30.0017

Routes In Shortgrass Prairie

Routes recording Dickcissel in Shortgrass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
HookerOKLAHOMA2102025
Clear LakeOKLAHOMA1942025
PlymellKANSAS1222025
PantexTEXAS852025
HardestyOKLAHOMA672024
WakaTEXAS592025
MiamiTEXAS562025
PritchettCOLORADO532025
TwichellTEXAS482025
PanhandleTEXAS442025
WinonaKANSAS422018
CactusTEXAS422025
GruverTEXAS392025
PaxtonNEBRASKA372016
ChampionNEBRASKA372018
GilpinCOLORADO362025
SkellytownTEXAS322025
EdlerCOLORADO282025
GrigstonKANSAS262024
CampoCOLORADO252025
NeegrandeCOLORADO242025
BenkelmanNEBRASKA242025
LakinKANSAS232022
Two ButtesCOLORADO212025
UlyssesKANSAS212025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.