BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 18 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Dickcissel In Shortgrass Prairie

All regionsShortgrass PrairieGrassland birds

Dickcissel in Shortgrass Prairie has edged down: down 12% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-12%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
102Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Dickcissel in Shortgrass Prairie. See the full index history below.

Dickcissel In Shortgrass Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Dickcissel in Shortgrass Prairie is projected to fall about 23% by 2029 — from 9.6 in 2024 to a central estimate of 7.4 (95% range 0.00–16). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±49.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-23%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
7.4Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±49.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Dickcissel in Shortgrass Prairie is projected to fall about 23% by 2029 — from 9.6 in 2024 to a central estimate of 7.4 (95% range 0.00–16). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±49.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20257.00.0016
20267.10.0016
20277.20.0016
20287.30.0016
20297.40.0016

Routes In Shortgrass Prairie

Routes recording Dickcissel in Shortgrass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
TwichellTEXAS1402023
Clear LakeOKLAHOMA1302024
HookerOKLAHOMA1152024
PlymellKANSAS862024
HardestyOKLAHOMA672024
MiamiTEXAS642023
WinonaKANSAS422018
PaxtonNEBRASKA372016
ChampionNEBRASKA372018
WakaTEXAS352024
FloydadaTEXAS332024
GruverTEXAS282024
GrigstonKANSAS262024
PritchettCOLORADO242024
LakinKANSAS232022
PantexTEXAS212024
PanhandleTEXAS202024
PinneoCOLORADO192018
LamesaTEXAS172016
Wildhorse LCOLORADO162024
UlyssesKANSAS162024
Fort MorganCOLORADO152024
DoughertyTEXAS152024
JulesburgCOLORADO142021
Agate 2NEBRASKA142024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.