BirdAnalyst
Species · Texas · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Western Meadowlark Population Trend in Texas

All statesGrassland birds

Western Meadowlark in Texas has edged up: up 25% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+25%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
100Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Western Meadowlark Trends in TexasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Western Meadowlark in Texas. See the full index history below.

Western Meadowlark Population Forecast in Texas

If the recent trend holds, Western Meadowlark in Texas is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 9.5 (95% range 0.17–19). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±18.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+2%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
9.5Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.17–1995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±18.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Western Meadowlark in Texas is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 9.5 (95% range 0.17–19). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±18.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20259.80.4119
20269.70.3519
20279.70.2919
20289.60.2319
20299.50.1719

Western Meadowlark Survey Routes in Texas

Routes recording Western Meadowlark in Texas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Kingsville21619691969
Skellytown18220241994
Pantex17920241974
Texline17520241975
Cactus12220241994
Friona10620242001
Dalhart10420241994
Twichell9720231996
Floydada9220241976
Claytonville8320221995
Booker8020241975
Gruver6820241994
Channing6520181967
Panhandle6320241994
Miami6020241975
Waka5020241975
Agua Nueva4319761969
Dougherty4120241995
Circle3720241968
Lamesa3220241969
Plains2720171994
Valentine2319871969
Lone Oak1619731971
Williams1520241996
Grayback1420241968

Western Meadowlark Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.