BirdAnalyst
Species · Texas · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Western Meadowlark Population Trend in Texas

All statesGrassland birds

Western Meadowlark in Texas has edged up: up 20% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+20%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
100Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Western Meadowlark Trends in TexasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Western Meadowlark in Texas. See the full index history below.

Western Meadowlark Population Forecast in Texas

If the recent trend holds, Western Meadowlark in Texas is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 9.4 (95% range 0.15–19). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±15.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+3%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
9.4Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.15–1995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±15.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Western Meadowlark in Texas is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 9.4 (95% range 0.15–19). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±15.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20269.70.3919
20279.60.3319
20289.60.2719
20299.50.2119
20309.40.1519

Western Meadowlark Survey Routes in Texas

Routes recording Western Meadowlark in Texas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Kingsville21619691969
Texline18220251975
Pantex15020251974
Dalhart14720251994
Gruver12920251994
Cactus11320251994
Booker10820251975
Twichell9820251996
Friona9320252001
Claytonville8320221995
Skellytown8220251994
Miami7120251975
Waka6820251975
Panhandle6720251994
Channing6520181967
Floydada5020251976
Dougherty4420251995
Agua Nueva4319761969
Circle3720241968
Plains2720171994
Valentine2319871969
Lamesa1920251969
Lone Oak1619731971
Grayback1420241968
Weinert1219941969

Western Meadowlark Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.