BirdAnalyst
Species · Missouri · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Western Meadowlark Population Trend in Missouri

All statesGrassland birds

Western Meadowlark in Missouri has collapsed: down 98% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-98%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
35Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Western Meadowlark Trends in MissouriNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Western Meadowlark has collapsed in Missouri: down 98% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Western Meadowlark Population Forecast in Missouri

If the recent trend holds, Western Meadowlark in Missouri is projected to fall about 100% by 2030 — from 0.09 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–2.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±310.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-100%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–2.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±310.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Western Meadowlark in Missouri is projected to fall about 100% by 2030 — from 0.09 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–2.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±310.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.000.002.3
20270.000.002.3
20280.000.002.3
20290.000.002.3
20300.000.002.3

Western Meadowlark Survey Routes in Missouri

Routes recording Western Meadowlark in Missouri.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Bolckow5019921967
Tarkio4819891968
Hamilton2719851972
Akers519871987
Elmo420252016
Lucerne320212018
Stet319921973
Cameron220221986
Pineville220222022
Queen City220182018
Frazier220191967
Trenton220081967
Kearney220091994
Pulaski120252025
Cassville120042004
Cp Girardeau119771977
Kahoka2120222022
Barnard120221999
Watson120251991
New Hampton120162015
Filley120242024
Reeds119941974
Weston120212021
Danville120101967
Cole Camp119811980

Western Meadowlark Population Trend in Other States

arizonacaliforniacoloradoidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckymichiganminnesotamontananebraskanevadanew-mexiconew-yorknorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniasouth-dakotatexasutahwashingtonwisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.