BirdAnalyst
Species · South Dakota · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Western Meadowlark Population Trend in South Dakota

All statesGrassland birds

Western Meadowlark in South Dakota has edged down: down 20% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-20%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
63Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Western Meadowlark Trends in South DakotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Western Meadowlark in South Dakota. See the full index history below.

Western Meadowlark Population Forecast in South Dakota

If the recent trend holds, Western Meadowlark in South Dakota is projected to fall about 39% by 2030 — from 186 in 2025 to a central estimate of 114 (95% range 54–175). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±26%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-39%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
114Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
54–17595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±26%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Western Meadowlark in South Dakota is projected to fall about 39% by 2030 — from 186 in 2025 to a central estimate of 114 (95% range 54–175). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±26%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
202612060181
202711958180
202811757178
202911655177
203011454175

Western Meadowlark Survey Routes in South Dakota

Routes recording Western Meadowlark in South Dakota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Harding68320251967
Indian59720251994
Pioneer52420241992
Rockyford50720251967
Cottonwood50320251992
S. Pioneer43920241994
Reva33720251979
Badlands31520251982
Cedar Pass27420251967
Maurine23520251968
French Creek22220051995
Fort Pierre21020251968
Lacreek20720251991
Volunteer20320251967
Wind Cave Np17120251999
Winner16620251968
Hayes16420241989
Lodgepole16320251990
Long Lake16120191967
Railroad Butte16020221995
Ottumwa15720251967
Rosebud15320111967
Ft Thompson13920111967
Owanka13220221967
Crow Creek12820231967

Western Meadowlark Population Trend in Other States

arizonacaliforniacoloradoidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckymichiganminnesotamissourimontananebraskanevadanew-mexiconew-yorknorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniatexasutahwashingtonwisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.