BirdAnalyst
Species · South Dakota · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Western Meadowlark Population Trend in South Dakota

All statesGrassland birds

Western Meadowlark in South Dakota has declined: down 28% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-28%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
63Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Western Meadowlark Trends in South DakotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Western Meadowlark in South Dakota. See the full index history below.

Western Meadowlark Population Forecast in South Dakota

If the recent trend holds, Western Meadowlark in South Dakota is projected to fall about 35% by 2029 — from 171 in 2024 to a central estimate of 111 (95% range 52–169). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±17.7%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-35%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
111Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
52–16995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±17.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Western Meadowlark in South Dakota is projected to fall about 35% by 2029 — from 171 in 2024 to a central estimate of 111 (95% range 52–169). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±17.7%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
202511758176
202611657174
202711455173
202811254171
202911152169

Western Meadowlark Survey Routes in South Dakota

Routes recording Western Meadowlark in South Dakota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Pioneer52420241992
Indian45420241994
S. Pioneer43920241994
Cottonwood40320241992
Reva34920241979
Maurine33920241968
Badlands33520231982
Cedar Pass31920231967
Rockyford29820231967
Harding24520191967
Lacreek23020231991
French Creek22220051995
Volunteer20220191967
Wind Cave Np18820241999
Hayes16420241989
Long Lake16120191967
Lodgepole16020241990
Railroad Butte16020221995
Rosebud15320111967
Fort Pierre14720241968
Ft Thompson13920111967
Winner13320241968
Owanka13220221967
Crow Creek12820231967
Ardmore12820191977

Western Meadowlark Population Trend in Other States

arizonacaliforniacoloradoidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckymichiganminnesotamissourimontananebraskanevadanew-mexiconew-yorknorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniatexasutahwashingtonwisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.