BirdAnalyst
Species · Michigan · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Western Meadowlark Population Trend in Michigan

All statesGrassland birds

Western Meadowlark in Michigan has collapsed: down 98% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-98%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
52Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
41YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Western Meadowlark Trends in MichiganNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Western Meadowlark has collapsed in Michigan: down 98% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Western Meadowlark Population Forecast in Michigan

If the recent trend holds, Western Meadowlark in Michigan is projected to stay roughly flat through 2017, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–1.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±3564%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2017TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2017 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±3564%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Western Meadowlark in Michigan is projected to stay roughly flat through 2017, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–1.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±3564%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662017
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20130.000.001.0
20140.000.001.0
20150.000.001.0
20160.000.001.0
20170.000.001.0

Western Meadowlark Survey Routes in Michigan

Routes recording Western Meadowlark in Michigan.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Lake City419791970
Traverse Cty419751975
Walloon Lake319861980
New Troy219831971
St Charles219791969
Fowlerville219771974
Deckerville220072007
Ontonagon119851967
Bergland119891989
Bootjack119981967
Ned Lake119951986
New Buffalo120031994
Wilson119851966
Cunard120051975
Shingleton119671967
Scott'S Marsh120082008
Cluster Lakes120072006
Scottville119791979
Big Blue Lk119921992
Lawrence119851972
Gilchrist120011974
Pleasant Val119901990
Skegemog Pt119851985
Big Rapids119901968
Nashville120031969

Western Meadowlark Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.