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Species · Kansas · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Western Meadowlark Population Trend in Kansas

All statesGrassland birds

Western Meadowlark in Kansas has fallen sharply: down 66% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-66%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
61Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Western Meadowlark Trends in KansasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Western Meadowlark has fallen sharply in Kansas: down 66% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Western Meadowlark Population Forecast in Kansas

If the recent trend holds, Western Meadowlark in Kansas is projected to rise about 13% by 2030 — from 37 in 2025 to a central estimate of 42 (95% range 12–72). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±75.4%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+13%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
42Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
12–7295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±75.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Western Meadowlark in Kansas is projected to rise about 13% by 2030 — from 37 in 2025 to a central estimate of 42 (95% range 12–72). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±75.4%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026471777
2027461675
2028441574
2029431373
2030421272

Western Meadowlark Survey Routes in Kansas

Routes recording Western Meadowlark in Kansas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Covert27320251967
Hays24520141967
Winona19820182000
Gray16920191967
Jewell15720051967
Ash Valley14620192000
Beloit 213420182005
Beloit12520032000
Damar11420162000
Leoville11020181967
Chapman10919811967
Logan10520251967
Grigston9720242000
Plymell9620252000
Gove9420221970
Ulysses9420252000
Lakin8920221967
Phillipsburg8420251967
Susank8420222000
Rexford8420252000
Missler8120191975
Leoti7920222000
Jewell 27220252006
Ruleton7220221981
Minneapolis6720191967

Western Meadowlark Population Trend in Other States

arizonacaliforniacoloradoidahoillinoisindianaiowakentuckymichiganminnesotamissourimontananebraskanevadanew-mexiconew-yorknorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniasouth-dakotatexasutahwashingtonwisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.