BirdAnalyst
Species · Arizona · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Western Meadowlark Population Trend in Arizona

All statesGrassland birds

Western Meadowlark in Arizona has edged down: down 11% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-11%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
64Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Western Meadowlark Trends in ArizonaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Western Meadowlark in Arizona. See the full index history below.

Western Meadowlark Population Forecast in Arizona

If the recent trend holds, Western Meadowlark in Arizona is projected to rise about 59% by 2030 — from 2.2 in 2025 to a central estimate of 3.4 (95% range 0.00–7.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±96.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+59%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.4Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–7.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±96.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Western Meadowlark in Arizona is projected to rise about 59% by 2030 — from 2.2 in 2025 to a central estimate of 3.4 (95% range 0.00–7.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±96.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20263.50.007.6
20273.50.007.6
20283.50.007.5
20293.50.007.5
20303.40.007.5

Western Meadowlark Survey Routes in Arizona

Routes recording Western Meadowlark in Arizona.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Mt Trumbull6119931974
Mormon Lake4319751968
Black Mesa2819951988
Skull Valley2620241996
Round Rock2219891969
Skull Valley 22020252025
Maine1720251992
Toroweap1620251994
House Rock1520221973
Zeniff1419841969
Williams1020251993
Tsaile1020231993
Pinetop920221993
Peach Spring920211992
Clay Spring920251988
Florence819881988
Palo Verde720131992
Hope720042004
Cactus Forest620241991
Rose Wells519781968
Flagstaff520251988
Page420191993
Greasewood420031993
Portal319791979
Oraibi320221991

Western Meadowlark Population Trend in Other States

californiacoloradoidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckymichiganminnesotamissourimontananebraskanevadanew-mexiconew-yorknorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniasouth-dakotatexasutahwashingtonwisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.