BirdAnalyst
Species · New Mexico · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Western Meadowlark Population Trend in New Mexico

All statesGrassland birds

Western Meadowlark in New Mexico has declined: down 41% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-41%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
80Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Western Meadowlark Trends in New MexicoNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Western Meadowlark in New Mexico. See the full index history below.

Western Meadowlark Population Forecast in New Mexico

If the recent trend holds, Western Meadowlark in New Mexico is projected to fall about 24% by 2030 — from 25 in 2025 to a central estimate of 19 (95% range 7.6–30). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±21%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-24%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
19Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
7.6–3095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±21%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Western Meadowlark in New Mexico is projected to fall about 24% by 2030 — from 25 in 2025 to a central estimate of 19 (95% range 7.6–30). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±21%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026209.032
2027208.731
2028208.331
2029198.031
2030197.630

Western Meadowlark Survey Routes in New Mexico

Routes recording Western Meadowlark in New Mexico.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Maxwell24320251996
Raton18119941994
Grenville17420251968
Farley16720251979
Clovis15120241993
Sedan13020251994
Farmington8319871975
Wagon Mound8219781970
Tucumcari8019751975
Pecos7120171973
Aztec7119891988
Pastura6420251993
Sabinoso6320211980
Capulin5819941993
Maljamar5019771975
Stinking Lk.4319991992
Rosebud4320251994
Engle4219891989
San Antonio4119771974
Angel Fire4020021992
Logan3620251977
Cooley Lake3520251968
Laborcita3220191992
Dulce3220252000
Valencia3019971968

Western Meadowlark Population Trend in Other States

arizonacaliforniacoloradoidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckymichiganminnesotamissourimontananebraskanevadanew-yorknorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniasouth-dakotatexasutahwashingtonwisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.