BirdAnalyst
Species · Montana · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Western Meadowlark Population Trend in Montana

All statesGrassland birds

Western Meadowlark in Montana has edged down: down 13% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-13%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
108Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Western Meadowlark Trends in MontanaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Western Meadowlark in Montana. See the full index history below.

Western Meadowlark Population Forecast in Montana

If the recent trend holds, Western Meadowlark in Montana is projected to fall about 26% by 2029 — from 102 in 2024 to a central estimate of 75 (95% range 48–103). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±28.9%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-26%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
75Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
48–10395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±28.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Western Meadowlark in Montana is projected to fall about 26% by 2029 — from 102 in 2024 to a central estimate of 75 (95% range 48–103). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±28.9%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20257749105
20267649104
20277648104
20287648104
20297548103

Western Meadowlark Survey Routes in Montana

Routes recording Western Meadowlark in Montana.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Wheat Basin42320242017
Brandenberg32820191968
Ingomar31420241968
Locate30520241981
Custer 229020242024
Powderville28520241968
Savage27820211968
Ester Lake27620242015
Custer24520222019
Redstone24020241968
Dinosaurs H.M.23520242018
Hehn Draw23220242016
Cabin Creek22320242018
Circle21920231969
Albion21620241982
Forsyth21120231980
Roy21020241988
Flatwillow21020081968
Lindsay20820242015
Miles City20420242015
Polson20120241972
Saco19820242015
Brusett19220241982
Webster19020241978
Wolf Point18920242015

Western Meadowlark Population Trend in Other States

arizonacaliforniacoloradoidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckymichiganminnesotamissourinebraskanevadanew-mexiconew-yorknorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniasouth-dakotatexasutahwashingtonwisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.