BirdAnalyst
Species · Montana · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Western Meadowlark Population Trend in Montana

All statesGrassland birds

Western Meadowlark in Montana has edged down: down 10% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-10%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
108Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Western Meadowlark Trends in MontanaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Western Meadowlark in Montana. See the full index history below.

Western Meadowlark Population Forecast in Montana

If the recent trend holds, Western Meadowlark in Montana is projected to fall about 26% by 2030 — from 104 in 2025 to a central estimate of 77 (95% range 49–106). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±29.3%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-26%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
77Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
49–10695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±29.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Western Meadowlark in Montana is projected to fall about 26% by 2030 — from 104 in 2025 to a central estimate of 77 (95% range 49–106). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±29.3%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20267850107
20277850107
20287849106
20297749106
20307749106

Western Meadowlark Survey Routes in Montana

Routes recording Western Meadowlark in Montana.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Wheat Basin56420252017
Ingomar37520251968
Miles City35920252015
Locate28720251981
Custer 226720252024
Albion24720251982
Hehn Draw24720252016
Custer24520222019
Redstone24120251968
Cabin Creek23720252018
Powderville22920251968
Circle21920231969
Shawmut21220251979
Forsyth21120231980
Flatwillow21020081968
Brandenberg20820251968
Lindsay20820242015
Saco20720252015
Webster20420251978
Glasgow20320251968
Ester Lake19820252015
Brusett19220241982
Leroy19020251970
Wolf Point18920242015
Roy18620251988

Western Meadowlark Population Trend in Other States

arizonacaliforniacoloradoidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckymichiganminnesotamissourinebraskanevadanew-mexiconew-yorknorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniasouth-dakotatexasutahwashingtonwisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.