BirdAnalyst
Species · Indiana · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Western Meadowlark Population Trend in Indiana

All statesGrassland birds

Western Meadowlark in Indiana has collapsed: down 98% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-98%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
19Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
48YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Western Meadowlark Trends in IndianaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Western Meadowlark has collapsed in Indiana: down 97% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Western Meadowlark Population Forecast in Indiana

If the recent trend holds, Western Meadowlark in Indiana is projected to fall about 100% by 2026 — from 0.08 in 2021 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.65). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±1027.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-100%Change by 2026TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2026 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.6595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±1027.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Western Meadowlark in Indiana is projected to fall about 100% by 2026 — from 0.08 in 2021 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.65). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±1027.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662026
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20220.000.000.65
20230.000.000.65
20240.000.000.65
20250.000.000.65
20260.000.000.65

Western Meadowlark Survey Routes in Indiana

Routes recording Western Meadowlark in Indiana.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Wabash620051986
Packertown219861967
Shelbyville220212021
Gary119841981
Hebron120121967
South Bend119681966
Kewanna120041983
Kankakee Sands120192001
Columbia Cty119901984
Ellis119891989
Fowler120211966
W Lafayette120191986
Monticello119941988
Galveston120212021
Tipton119851984
Brookville119711971
Evansville119721972
Lagrange120012000
Rensselaer120111999

Western Meadowlark Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.