BirdAnalyst
Species · California · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Western Meadowlark Population Trend in California

All statesGrassland birds

Western Meadowlark in California has fallen sharply: down 57% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-57%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
208Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Western Meadowlark Trends in CaliforniaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Western Meadowlark has fallen sharply in California: down 57% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Western Meadowlark Population Forecast in California

If the recent trend holds, Western Meadowlark in California is projected to fall about 34% by 2029 — from 15 in 2024 to a central estimate of 9.8 (95% range 3.5–16). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±15.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-34%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
9.8Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
3.5–1695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±15.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Western Meadowlark in California is projected to fall about 34% by 2029 — from 15 in 2024 to a central estimate of 9.8 (95% range 3.5–16). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±15.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025115.017
2026114.617
2027104.317
2028103.916
20299.83.516

Western Meadowlark Survey Routes in California

Routes recording Western Meadowlark in California.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Honey Lake23120241972
Clear Lk Res18420181972
Atwater12220121971
Davis Creek11820241972
Carrizo Pln9920231970
Niland9220241973
Riovista8620241968
Ventucopa7520021972
Ravendale7120241973
Madeline7120241997
Dorris6620191972
Alamo River6020181973
Iron Gate5720191988
Santa Cruz I5419881988
Macdoel5220191972
Yreka5020191973
Cedarville4920241974
Gazelle4920211988
Alderpoint4620121974
Athlone4420071972
Mesa Grande4320241970
Yolla Bolly4020241973
Likely3820241971
Copperopolis3820241972
Ingalls3620011973

Western Meadowlark Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.