BirdAnalyst
Species · California · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Western Meadowlark Population Trend in California

All statesGrassland birds

Western Meadowlark in California has fallen sharply: down 51% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-51%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
208Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Western Meadowlark Trends in CaliforniaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Western Meadowlark has fallen sharply in California: down 51% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Western Meadowlark Population Forecast in California

If the recent trend holds, Western Meadowlark in California is projected to fall about 36% by 2030 — from 15 in 2025 to a central estimate of 9.7 (95% range 3.4–16). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±17.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-36%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
9.7Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
3.4–1695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±17.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Western Meadowlark in California is projected to fall about 36% by 2030 — from 15 in 2025 to a central estimate of 9.7 (95% range 3.4–16). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±17.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026114.917
2027114.517
2028104.217
2029103.816
20309.73.416

Western Meadowlark Survey Routes in California

Routes recording Western Meadowlark in California.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Honey Lake19720251972
Clear Lk Res18420181972
Riovista13620251968
Atwater12220121971
Davis Creek11120251972
Niland9720251973
Ingalls8720251973
Ventucopa7520021972
Madeline6820251997
Dorris6620191972
Alamo River6020181973
Iron Gate5720191988
Ravendale5520251973
Santa Cruz I5419881988
Macdoel5220191972
Yreka5020191973
Gazelle4920211988
Alderpoint4620121974
Mesa Grande4520251970
Sattley4520251972
Yolla Bolly4520251973
Athlone4420071972
Cedarville3920251974
Copperopolis3820241972
Moreno3420251968

Western Meadowlark Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.