BirdAnalyst
Species · North Dakota · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Western Meadowlark Population Trend in North Dakota

All statesGrassland birds

Western Meadowlark in North Dakota has declined: down 32% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-32%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
51Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Western Meadowlark Trends in North DakotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Western Meadowlark in North Dakota. See the full index history below.

Western Meadowlark Population Forecast in North Dakota

If the recent trend holds, Western Meadowlark in North Dakota is projected to fall about 30% by 2030 — from 97 in 2025 to a central estimate of 68 (95% range 31–104). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±11.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-30%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
68Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
31–10495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±11.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Western Meadowlark in North Dakota is projected to fall about 30% by 2030 — from 97 in 2025 to a central estimate of 68 (95% range 31–104). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±11.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20267336109
20277135108
20287033107
20296932105
20306831104

Western Meadowlark Survey Routes in North Dakota

Routes recording Western Meadowlark in North Dakota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Gorham45520251968
Dickinson27520251968
Ft Yates26220041968
Denbigh23020251968
Bentley21620241988
Carson16620251988
Zap16420241967
Glen Ullin15320251982
Dunn Center14020251968
Horsehead Lk13220251980
Golva12820251979
Danzig 212020252019
Bowman11420251967
Sydney11219831967
Solen11020252005
Tobacco9820191968
Roosevelt Pk9020191982
Cedar Creek8420221968
Stanley8120251967
Lake George8020231967
Douglas Crk6920251982
Powers Lake6220251980
Danzig6120141982
Cooperstown6120251969
Parshall6020131982

Western Meadowlark Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.