BirdAnalyst
Species · North Dakota · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Western Meadowlark Population Trend in North Dakota

All statesGrassland birds

Western Meadowlark in North Dakota has declined: down 38% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-38%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
51Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Western Meadowlark Trends in North DakotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Western Meadowlark in North Dakota. See the full index history below.

Western Meadowlark Population Forecast in North Dakota

If the recent trend holds, Western Meadowlark in North Dakota is projected to fall about 22% by 2029 — from 86 in 2024 to a central estimate of 67 (95% range 31–103). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±10.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-22%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
67Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
31–10395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±10.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Western Meadowlark in North Dakota is projected to fall about 22% by 2029 — from 86 in 2024 to a central estimate of 67 (95% range 31–103). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±10.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20257236108
20267134107
20276933106
20286832105
20296731103

Western Meadowlark Survey Routes in North Dakota

Routes recording Western Meadowlark in North Dakota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Dickinson32420241968
Ft Yates26220041968
Bentley21620241988
Denbigh18020241968
Zap16420241967
Golva15620231979
Carson15620241988
Dunn Center14420241968
Gorham14120181968
Horsehead Lk13720241980
Solen12020242005
Sydney11219831967
Glen Ullin10820221982
Danzig 210720242019
Bowman10620241967
Lake George10220221967
Douglas Crk10220241982
Tobacco9820191968
Roosevelt Pk9020191982
Cedar Creek8420221968
Powers Lake8020241980
Stanley7320241967
Cooperstown7020241969
Sheyenne Lk6320241980
Danzig6120141982

Western Meadowlark Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.