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Species · Minnesota · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Western Meadowlark Population Trend in Minnesota

All statesGrassland birds

Western Meadowlark in Minnesota has collapsed: down 93% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-93%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
73Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Western Meadowlark Trends in MinnesotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Western Meadowlark has collapsed in Minnesota: down 93% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Western Meadowlark Population Forecast in Minnesota

If the recent trend holds, Western Meadowlark in Minnesota is projected to fall about 100% by 2030 — from 2.8 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–12). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±425.3%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-100%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±425.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Western Meadowlark in Minnesota is projected to fall about 100% by 2030 — from 2.8 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–12). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±425.3%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.000.0012
20270.000.0012
20280.000.0012
20290.000.0012
20300.000.0012

Western Meadowlark Survey Routes in Minnesota

Routes recording Western Meadowlark in Minnesota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Erie4320171976
Badger4120181978
Lake Bronson4020111978
Greenbush3920251993
Grygla3520171976
Chandler3320251969
Beltrami1920251967
Wylie1720241969
Ash Creek1320251975
Warroad1320251993
Oklee1120211969
Tracy1020252004
Redwood Fall620161978
Chokio North620251993
Lockhart620251993
Tenney520161978
Backus419961970
Lude420221978
Franklin420252004
Pine River320031967
Glyndon320251978
Bemidji319801967
Debs320241969
Le Center319991993
Lakeville220061968

Western Meadowlark Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.