BirdAnalyst
Species · Minnesota · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Western Meadowlark Population Trend in Minnesota

All statesGrassland birds

Western Meadowlark in Minnesota has collapsed: down 93% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-93%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
72Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Western Meadowlark Trends in MinnesotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Western Meadowlark has collapsed in Minnesota: down 93% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Western Meadowlark Population Forecast in Minnesota

If the recent trend holds, Western Meadowlark in Minnesota is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 3.2 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–12). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±406%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-100%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±406%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Western Meadowlark in Minnesota is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 3.2 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–12). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±406%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.000.0012
20260.000.0012
20270.000.0012
20280.000.0012
20290.000.0012

Western Meadowlark Survey Routes in Minnesota

Routes recording Western Meadowlark in Minnesota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Greenbush6720241993
Chandler4620231969
Erie4320171976
Badger4120181978
Lake Bronson4020111978
Grygla3520171976
Warroad2020241993
Wylie1720241969
Tracy1720242004
Ash Creek1520191975
Chokio North1220241993
Oklee1120211969
Beltrami1120241967
Glyndon820241978
Tyler720241993
Redwood Fall620161978
Tenney520161978
Lockhart520241993
Arlington420241967
Backus419961970
Lude420221978
Pine River320031967
Bemidji319801967
Debs320241969
Le Center319991993

Western Meadowlark Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.