BirdAnalyst
Species · Texas · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Lark Sparrow Population Trend in Texas

All statesGrassland birds

Lark Sparrow in Texas has fallen sharply: down 65% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-65%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
228Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Lark Sparrow Trends in TexasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Lark Sparrow has fallen sharply in Texas: down 65% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Lark Sparrow Population Forecast in Texas

If the recent trend holds, Lark Sparrow in Texas is projected to fall about 44% by 2030 — from 8.6 in 2025 to a central estimate of 4.8 (95% range 0.00–11). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±35.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-44%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4.8Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±35.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Lark Sparrow in Texas is projected to fall about 44% by 2030 — from 8.6 in 2025 to a central estimate of 4.8 (95% range 0.00–11). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±35.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20265.80.0012
20275.60.0012
20285.30.0011
20295.10.0011
20304.80.0011

Lark Sparrow Survey Routes in Texas

Routes recording Lark Sparrow in Texas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Hondo7820251969
Eldorado6920231975
George West5420251967
Raymondville4320251969
Pedro Creek4320051996
Olney3820241969
San Saba3520251969
Pear Valley3420251969
Whit Mtn.3420191994
Girard3020251994
Dripping Spg2820251985
Hobson2720251968
Boerne2720251967
Arenosa Crk2620251971
Harper2620251969
Ozona 22620252025
Oakwood2519951967
Chandler2520041968
Prairie Mtn.2520251994
Allen Creek2420251994
Cactus2420251994
Utopia2320251969
Ozona2320221975
Encinal 22320252011
Graford2220251967

Lark Sparrow Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianaminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-mexiconorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonsouth-dakotatennesseeutahwashingtonwisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.