BirdAnalyst
Species · Texas · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Lark Sparrow Population Trend in Texas

All statesGrassland birds

Lark Sparrow in Texas has fallen sharply: down 65% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-65%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
226Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Lark Sparrow Trends in TexasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Lark Sparrow has fallen sharply in Texas: down 65% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Lark Sparrow Population Forecast in Texas

If the recent trend holds, Lark Sparrow in Texas is projected to fall about 43% by 2029 — from 8.5 in 2024 to a central estimate of 4.9 (95% range 0.00–11). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±37.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-43%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4.9Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±37.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Lark Sparrow in Texas is projected to fall about 43% by 2029 — from 8.5 in 2024 to a central estimate of 4.9 (95% range 0.00–11). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±37.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20255.90.0012
20265.60.0012
20275.40.0011
20285.10.0011
20294.90.0011

Lark Sparrow Survey Routes in Texas

Routes recording Lark Sparrow in Texas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Eldorado6920231975
Pidcoke 24620242018
Pedro Creek4320051996
Pear Valley4120241969
Girard3920231994
Olney3820241969
Harper3420241969
Whit Mtn.3420191994
Childress3220241969
Pumpville3220242007
San Saba3020241969
Raymondville2920241969
Hondo2820241969
Megargel2820241994
Valley Spgs2720241967
Graford2720191967
Devils R Cyn2720241994
Utopia2620241969
Williams2620241997
Oakwood2519951967
Chandler2520041968
Charlie2520241994
Albany2420241969
Ozona2320221975
Selden2220241968

Lark Sparrow Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianaminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-mexiconorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonsouth-dakotatennesseeutahwashingtonwisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.