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Species · Mississippi · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Lark Sparrow Population Trend in Mississippi

All statesGrassland birds

Lark Sparrow in Mississippi has surged: up 230% on the route-weighted index since 1978.

+230%Since 1978TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
7Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
35YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Lark Sparrow Trends in MississippiNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Lark Sparrow has surged in Mississippi: up 230% on the route-weighted index since 1978.

Lark Sparrow Population Forecast in Mississippi

If the recent trend holds, Lark Sparrow in Mississippi is projected to rise about 73% by 2030 — from 0.21 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.36 (95% range 0.04–0.69). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±50.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+73%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.36Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.04–0.6995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±50.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Lark Sparrow in Mississippi is projected to rise about 73% by 2030 — from 0.21 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.36 (95% range 0.04–0.69). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±50.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.340.010.67
20270.350.020.67
20280.350.030.68
20290.360.030.69
20300.360.040.69

Lark Sparrow Survey Routes in Mississippi

Routes recording Lark Sparrow in Mississippi.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Utica319681968
Aberdeen220251974
Tippo120231996
Trace Lee120142014
Corinth120252025
Tupelo120182015
Macon120251991

Lark Sparrow Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianaminnesotamissourimontananebraskanevadanew-mexiconorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonsouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahwashingtonwisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.