BirdAnalyst
Species · Arkansas · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Lark Sparrow Population Trend in Arkansas

All statesGrassland birds

Lark Sparrow in Arkansas has fallen sharply: down 63% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-63%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
39Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Lark Sparrow Trends in ArkansasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Lark Sparrow has fallen sharply in Arkansas: down 63% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Lark Sparrow Population Forecast in Arkansas

If the recent trend holds, Lark Sparrow in Arkansas is projected to rise about 259% by 2029 — from 0.18 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.64 (95% range 0.00–1.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±116.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+259%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.64Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±116.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Lark Sparrow in Arkansas is projected to rise about 259% by 2029 — from 0.18 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.64 (95% range 0.00–1.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±116.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.640.001.3
20260.640.001.3
20270.640.001.3
20280.640.001.3
20290.640.001.3

Lark Sparrow Survey Routes in Arkansas

Routes recording Lark Sparrow in Arkansas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Augusta 2920162002
Fulton520231967
Russell420212010
England420242014
Poyen320051967
Eudora220161967
Ramsey219901967
Hope219771968
Hatfield 2220232017
Saffell220191982
Massard220141967
Compton219761967
Ravenden Springs220102010
Kelso220162011
Princeton220212001
Locust Bayou120161967
Stamps119971967
Ashdown120111968
Ozark Nf120162016
Crows119911967
Hollywood120021971
Blakely119971971
Harrisburg120061996
Augusta119991979
Rupert119741967

Lark Sparrow Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonacaliforniacoloradoidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianaminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-mexiconorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonsouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahwashingtonwisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.