BirdAnalyst
Species · New Mexico · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Lark Sparrow Population Trend in New Mexico

All statesGrassland birds

Lark Sparrow in New Mexico has surged: up 195% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+195%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
83Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Lark Sparrow Trends in New MexicoNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Lark Sparrow has surged in New Mexico: up 195% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Lark Sparrow Population Forecast in New Mexico

If the recent trend holds, Lark Sparrow in New Mexico is projected to rise about 65% by 2029 — from 7.0 in 2024 to a central estimate of 12 (95% range 7.6–16). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±73.6%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+65%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
12Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
7.6–1695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±73.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Lark Sparrow in New Mexico is projected to rise about 65% by 2029 — from 7.0 in 2024 to a central estimate of 12 (95% range 7.6–16). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±73.6%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025117.115
2026117.215
2027117.315
2028117.516
2029127.616

Lark Sparrow Survey Routes in New Mexico

Routes recording Lark Sparrow in New Mexico.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Capitan Mtn.5920171993
Mountainair4220241992
Variadero3920221994
La Plata 23420162014
La Plata2920131990
Sabinoso2820211980
Farley2520241979
Pep2420241992
Sedan2320241994
Aztec2319891988
Hobbs2120241994
Capulin1819941993
Grenville1720241968
Farmington1619871975
Tucumcari1619751975
Claunch 21620242001
Cooley Lake1420241968
Lakewood1420211980
Rosebud1420241994
Clovis1420241993
Pinon1420241994
Roswell1320231969
Quemado1319971992
Fence Lake1220241975
Caprock1220241977

Lark Sparrow Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.