BirdAnalyst
Species · New Mexico · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Lark Sparrow Population Trend in New Mexico

All statesGrassland birds

Lark Sparrow in New Mexico has surged: up 183% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+183%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
83Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Lark Sparrow Trends in New MexicoNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Lark Sparrow has surged in New Mexico: up 183% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Lark Sparrow Population Forecast in New Mexico

If the recent trend holds, Lark Sparrow in New Mexico is projected to rise about 65% by 2030 — from 6.9 in 2025 to a central estimate of 11 (95% range 7.3–16). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±77.1%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+65%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
11Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
7.3–1695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±77.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Lark Sparrow in New Mexico is projected to rise about 65% by 2030 — from 6.9 in 2025 to a central estimate of 11 (95% range 7.3–16). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±77.1%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026116.815
2027116.915
2028117.115
2029117.215
2030117.316

Lark Sparrow Survey Routes in New Mexico

Routes recording Lark Sparrow in New Mexico.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Capitan Mtn.5920171993
Grenville4220251968
Mountainair4220241992
Variadero3920221994
Farley3720251979
La Plata 23420162014
La Plata2920131990
Sabinoso2820211980
Dulce2520252003
Pep2420241992
Aztec2319891988
Sedan2120251994
Capulin1819941993
Maxwell1720251996
Farmington1619871975
Torreon1620251975
Tucumcari1619751975
Lakewood1420211980
Rosebud1420251994
Clovis1420241993
Pinon1420241994
Cooley Lake1320251968
Quemado1319971992
Corona East1219951993
Nageesi1120251968

Lark Sparrow Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.