BirdAnalyst
Species · Indiana · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Lark Sparrow Population Trend in Indiana

All statesGrassland birds

Lark Sparrow in Indiana has declined: down 38% on the route-weighted index since 1980.

-38%Since 1980TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
18Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
26YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Lark Sparrow Trends in IndianaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Lark Sparrow in Indiana. See the full index history below.

Lark Sparrow Population Forecast in Indiana

If the recent trend holds, Lark Sparrow in Indiana is projected to rise about 37% by 2028 — from 0.07 in 2023 to a central estimate of 0.09 (95% range 0.00–0.21). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±199%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+37%Change by 2028TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.09Projected 2028 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.2195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±199%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Lark Sparrow in Indiana is projected to rise about 37% by 2028 — from 0.07 in 2023 to a central estimate of 0.09 (95% range 0.00–0.21). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±199%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19692028
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20240.090.000.20
20250.090.000.20
20260.090.000.20
20270.090.000.20
20280.090.000.21

Lark Sparrow Survey Routes in Indiana

Routes recording Lark Sparrow in Indiana.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Cyprss620112009
Knox220232023
Kankakee Sands220182000
Crown Point220182001
Friendswood219971997
Newberry220191999
Washington120152015
Hebron120161989
Indian Spgs120182011
Corydon119801980
Vevay119691969
Portage 2120132013
Evansville119911976
Maplewood120212021
Pimento120232023
Wallace120182018
Spencer119941994
Milroy119911986

Lark Sparrow Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoidahoillinoisiowakansaskentuckylouisianaminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-mexiconorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonsouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahwashingtonwisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.