BirdAnalyst
Species · Idaho · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Lark Sparrow Population Trend in Idaho

All statesGrassland birds

Lark Sparrow in Idaho has increased: up 25% on the route-weighted index since 1972.

+25%Since 1972TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
43Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
54YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Lark Sparrow Trends in IdahoNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Lark Sparrow in Idaho. See the full index history below.

Lark Sparrow Population Forecast in Idaho

If the recent trend holds, Lark Sparrow in Idaho is projected to rise about 14% by 2030 — from 1.3 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.4 (95% range 0.12–2.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±44.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+14%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.4Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.12–2.795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±44.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Lark Sparrow in Idaho is projected to rise about 14% by 2030 — from 1.3 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.4 (95% range 0.12–2.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±44.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.40.092.7
20271.40.092.7
20281.40.102.7
20291.40.112.7
20301.40.122.7

Lark Sparrow Survey Routes in Idaho

Routes recording Lark Sparrow in Idaho.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Almo1820251988
Glenns Ferry1619861968
Triangle920251985
Cascade619831983
Crane Creek620191988
Kyle Canyon520251985
Acequia420071987
Joel420221989
Pasadena Val420161987
Circular Bu320061998
Silver City320251989
Blacks Creek219881968
Ririe220252012
Pocatello220081984
Henry219761973
Hot Spring220251988
Cedar Hill220241989
Daniels Res220251988
Preston220181988
Mora220242022
Blackft Res120141986
Naples119931993
Gifford119911991
Twin Buttes120251989
Lost River120131998

Lark Sparrow Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianaminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-mexiconorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonsouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahwashingtonwisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.