BirdAnalyst
Species · Alabama · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Lark Sparrow Population Trend in Alabama

All statesGrassland birds

Lark Sparrow in Alabama has surged: up 103% on the route-weighted index since 1987.

+103%Since 1987TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
12Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
32YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Lark Sparrow Trends in AlabamaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Lark Sparrow in Alabama. See the full index history below.

Lark Sparrow Population Forecast in Alabama

If the recent trend holds, Lark Sparrow in Alabama is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.11 (95% range 0.01–0.21). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±82.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-6%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.11Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.01–0.2195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±82.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Lark Sparrow in Alabama is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.11 (95% range 0.01–0.21). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±82.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19812030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.100.010.20
20270.110.010.20
20280.110.010.21
20290.110.010.21
20300.110.010.21

Lark Sparrow Survey Routes in Alabama

Routes recording Lark Sparrow in Alabama.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Wheeler Dam620251993
Millry219811981
Rock Chapel220242024
St Florian120222004
Courtland120211999
Elkmont120242010
Carter Grove120232007
Stevenson120242024
Whitehouse119941994
Epes120151986
Autaugaville120122006
Billingsley120162003

Lark Sparrow Population Trend in Other States

arizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianaminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-mexiconorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonsouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahwashingtonwisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.