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Species · Alabama · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Lark Sparrow Population Trend in Alabama

All statesGrassland birds

Lark Sparrow in Alabama has risen sharply: up 68% on the route-weighted index since 1987.

+68%Since 1987TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
12Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
31YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Lark Sparrow Trends in AlabamaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Lark Sparrow has risen sharply in Alabama: up 68% on the route-weighted index since 1987.

Lark Sparrow Population Forecast in Alabama

If the recent trend holds, Lark Sparrow in Alabama is projected to rise about 54% by 2029 — from 0.07 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.11 (95% range 0.01–0.21). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±85.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+54%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.11Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.01–0.2195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±85.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Lark Sparrow in Alabama is projected to rise about 54% by 2029 — from 0.07 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.11 (95% range 0.01–0.21). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±85.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19812029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.100.000.20
20260.100.000.20
20270.100.010.20
20280.110.010.21
20290.110.010.21

Lark Sparrow Survey Routes in Alabama

Routes recording Lark Sparrow in Alabama.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Millry219811981
Wheeler Dam220231993
Rock Chapel220242024
St Florian120222004
Courtland120211999
Elkmont120242010
Carter Grove120232007
Stevenson120242024
Whitehouse119941994
Epes120151986
Autaugaville120122006
Billingsley120162003

Lark Sparrow Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.