BirdAnalyst
Species · Minnesota · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Lark Sparrow Population Trend in Minnesota

All statesGrassland birds

Lark Sparrow in Minnesota has surged: up 198% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+198%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
26Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
51YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Lark Sparrow Trends in MinnesotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Lark Sparrow in Minnesota. See the full index history below.

Lark Sparrow Population Forecast in Minnesota

If the recent trend holds, Lark Sparrow in Minnesota is projected to fall about 69% by 2030 — from 0.22 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.07 (95% range 0.00–0.17). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±45.3%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-69%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.07Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.1795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±45.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Lark Sparrow in Minnesota is projected to fall about 69% by 2030 — from 0.22 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.07 (95% range 0.00–0.17). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±45.3%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.070.000.17
20270.070.000.17
20280.070.000.17
20290.070.000.17
20300.070.000.17

Lark Sparrow Survey Routes in Minnesota

Routes recording Lark Sparrow in Minnesota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Oklee519891969
Huntley320251968
Sherburne Nr320251991
Courtland220252018
Maynard220001981
New London220001994
Money Creek120182018
Ash Creek120252015
Millville120072004
Tamarac Nwr119921992
Nebish119951995
Princeton120211993
Appleton120252025
Edwards120171979
Glyndon120191995
Beltrami120251973
Wylie120141976
Lude119881983
Badger119791979
Lake Bronson119991990
Le Roy120242018
Fairmont120232023
Tracy120232021
Tyler120122012
Glenwood119941994

Lark Sparrow Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-mexiconorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonsouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahwashingtonwisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.