BirdAnalyst
Species · Missouri · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Lark Sparrow Population Trend in Missouri

All statesGrassland birds

Lark Sparrow in Missouri has declined: down 36% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-36%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
73Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Lark Sparrow Trends in MissouriNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Lark Sparrow in Missouri. See the full index history below.

Lark Sparrow Population Forecast in Missouri

If the recent trend holds, Lark Sparrow in Missouri is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.55 (95% range 0.00–1.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±31.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+6%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.55Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±31.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Lark Sparrow in Missouri is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.55 (95% range 0.00–1.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±31.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.600.011.2
20270.580.001.2
20280.570.001.2
20290.560.001.1
20300.550.001.1

Lark Sparrow Survey Routes in Missouri

Routes recording Lark Sparrow in Missouri.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Norborne1220232006
Frazier720241967
Mcfall720251994
New Point720251994
Emden720242017
Cassville620221967
New Hampton520252015
Kahoka419971969
Dover420232013
Madison320241973
Bolckow319921968
Blodgett320252013
Crane319941994
Cameron320231988
Pineville219911980
Cp Girardeau220251990
Ohio220241972
Warren219831971
Rockingham220251969
Hamilton219851985
Trenton220131975
Diamond220152015
Rueter220222022
Kennett220252019
Barnard220222002

Lark Sparrow Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianaminnesotamississippimontananebraskanevadanew-mexiconorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonsouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahwashingtonwisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.