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Species · Missouri · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Lark Sparrow Population Trend in Missouri

All statesGrassland birds

Lark Sparrow in Missouri has edged down: down 24% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-24%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
73Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Lark Sparrow Trends in MissouriNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Lark Sparrow in Missouri. See the full index history below.

Lark Sparrow Population Forecast in Missouri

If the recent trend holds, Lark Sparrow in Missouri is projected to fall about 31% by 2029 — from 0.82 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.57 (95% range 0.00–1.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±34.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-31%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.57Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±34.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Lark Sparrow in Missouri is projected to fall about 31% by 2029 — from 0.82 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.57 (95% range 0.00–1.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±34.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.620.021.2
20260.600.011.2
20270.590.001.2
20280.580.001.2
20290.570.001.2

Lark Sparrow Survey Routes in Missouri

Routes recording Lark Sparrow in Missouri.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Norborne1220232006
Mcfall920241994
Frazier720241967
New Point720241994
Emden720242017
Cassville620221967
Filley420241975
Kahoka419971969
Blodgett420242013
Laclede420241994
Dover420232013
Madison320241973
Bolckow319921968
Crane319941994
Cameron320231988
Pineville219911980
Ohio220241972
Warren219831971
Rockingham220241969
Hamilton219851985
Trenton220131975
Miller220172016
Diamond220152015
Rueter220222022
Barnard220222002

Lark Sparrow Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianaminnesotamississippimontananebraskanevadanew-mexiconorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonsouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahwashingtonwisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.