BirdAnalyst
Species · Wisconsin · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Lark Sparrow Population Trend in Wisconsin

All statesGrassland birds

Lark Sparrow in Wisconsin has surged: up 151% on the route-weighted index since 1972.

+151%Since 1972TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
18Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
40YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Lark Sparrow Trends in WisconsinNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Lark Sparrow in Wisconsin. See the full index history below.

Lark Sparrow Population Forecast in Wisconsin

If the recent trend holds, Lark Sparrow in Wisconsin is projected to rise about 13% by 2030 — from 0.09 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.10 (95% range 0.03–0.17). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±31.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+13%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.10Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.03–0.1795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±31.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Lark Sparrow in Wisconsin is projected to rise about 13% by 2030 — from 0.09 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.10 (95% range 0.03–0.17). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±31.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19702030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.100.030.16
20270.100.030.17
20280.100.030.17
20290.100.030.17
20300.100.030.17

Lark Sparrow Survey Routes in Wisconsin

Routes recording Lark Sparrow in Wisconsin.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Union Twp320252008
Meridean320242010
Beloit220092009
Hatfield219791970
N Freedom220241982
Princeton220141970
Prairie Du Chien220141999
Briggsville220252006
Trempealeau120182018
Minong120112011
Grand View119941994
Cadott120112006
Montreal119841984
Cumberland120132013
Oconto Falls119901972
Bashaw120232015
Buena Vista120252022
Fall River120252023

Lark Sparrow Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianaminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-mexiconorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonsouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahwashingtonwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.