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Species · Tennessee · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Lark Sparrow Population Trend in Tennessee

All statesGrassland birds

Lark Sparrow in Tennessee has surged: up 183% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+183%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
15Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
41YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Lark Sparrow Trends in TennesseeNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Lark Sparrow has surged in Tennessee: up 183% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Lark Sparrow Population Forecast in Tennessee

If the recent trend holds, Lark Sparrow in Tennessee is projected to fall about 42% by 2030 — from 0.20 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.12 (95% range 0.00–0.24). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±60.2%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-42%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.12Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.2495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±60.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Lark Sparrow in Tennessee is projected to fall about 42% by 2030 — from 0.20 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.12 (95% range 0.00–0.24). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±60.2%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.110.000.23
20270.110.000.23
20280.120.000.23
20290.120.000.23
20300.120.000.24

Lark Sparrow Survey Routes in Tennessee

Routes recording Lark Sparrow in Tennessee.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Belotes Bend219701970
Bradyville219661966
Brownsville120232005
Tibbs120252002
Whiteville120122012
Mansfield120251966
Sweetlips119871972
Silerton120022002
Humboldt120252021
Collinwood120171968
Lewis Forest119701967
Petersburg120122012
Peytonsville119661966
Union Hill119831971
Glen120251973

Lark Sparrow Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianaminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-mexiconorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonsouth-dakotatexasutahwashingtonwisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.