BirdAnalyst
Species · Nebraska · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Lark Sparrow Population Trend in Nebraska

All statesGrassland birds

Lark Sparrow in Nebraska has surged: up 255% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+255%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
74Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Lark Sparrow Trends in NebraskaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Lark Sparrow has surged in Nebraska: up 255% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Lark Sparrow Population Forecast in Nebraska

If the recent trend holds, Lark Sparrow in Nebraska is projected to rise about 41% by 2030 — from 8.9 in 2025 to a central estimate of 13 (95% range 8.4–17). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±63.9%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+41%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
13Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
8.4–1795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±63.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Lark Sparrow in Nebraska is projected to rise about 41% by 2030 — from 8.9 in 2025 to a central estimate of 13 (95% range 8.4–17). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±63.9%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026127.716
2027127.816
2028128.017
2029128.217
2030138.417

Lark Sparrow Survey Routes in Nebraska

Routes recording Lark Sparrow in Nebraska.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Mullen5220231990
Ringgold4620251985
Arthur4120251985
Gordon3720251976
Crescent Lk3420251980
Nenzel3420252018
Piester Lake2620251967
Sutherland2220252023
Brady2120251980
Dalton1920251968
Murray Lake1920251987
Crawford1720251980
Kimball1620211975
Agate1520011967
Brownlee1520251990
Eagle Creek1420251967
Crookston1420252018
Bassett1420252018
Benkelman1320251986
Swan Lake1120251969
Maxwell1020232018
Agate 21020252002
Almeria820211969
Thurston820251967
Midway820251967

Lark Sparrow Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianaminnesotamississippimissourimontananevadanew-mexiconorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonsouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahwashingtonwisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.