BirdAnalyst
Species · Nebraska · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Lark Sparrow Population Trend in Nebraska

All statesGrassland birds

Lark Sparrow in Nebraska has surged: up 219% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+219%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
73Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Lark Sparrow Trends in NebraskaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Lark Sparrow has surged in Nebraska: up 219% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Lark Sparrow Population Forecast in Nebraska

If the recent trend holds, Lark Sparrow in Nebraska is projected to rise about 36% by 2029 — from 9.3 in 2024 to a central estimate of 13 (95% range 8.4–17). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±80.6%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+36%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
13Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
8.4–1795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±80.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Lark Sparrow in Nebraska is projected to rise about 36% by 2029 — from 9.3 in 2024 to a central estimate of 13 (95% range 8.4–17). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±80.6%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025127.716
2026127.916
2027128.117
2028128.317
2029138.417

Lark Sparrow Survey Routes in Nebraska

Routes recording Lark Sparrow in Nebraska.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Mullen5220231990
Arthur4920241985
Crawford4020241980
Nenzel3820242018
Gordon3720241976
Dalton3520241968
Piester Lake3220241967
Sparta2520211967
Agate 22320242002
Ringgold2020241985
Crookston1720242018
Kimball1620211975
Brady1620241980
Agate1520011967
Brownlee1520241990
Eagle Creek1420241967
Crescent Lk1420171980
Benkelman1020221986
Maxwell1020232018
Johnstown920241967
Sutherland920242023
Murdock920242018
Almeria820211969
Kennedy820241976
Lyons820242018

Lark Sparrow Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianaminnesotamississippimissourimontananevadanew-mexiconorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonsouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahwashingtonwisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.