BirdAnalyst
Species · Nevada · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Lark Sparrow Population Trend in Nevada

All statesGrassland birds

Lark Sparrow in Nevada has surged: up 13× on the route-weighted index since 1970.

13×Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
40Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
51YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Lark Sparrow Trends in NevadaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Lark Sparrow has surged in Nevada: up 13× on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Lark Sparrow Population Forecast in Nevada

If the recent trend holds, Lark Sparrow in Nevada is projected to fall about 37% by 2030 — from 7.5 in 2025 to a central estimate of 4.8 (95% range 1.6–7.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±37.2%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-37%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4.8Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.6–7.995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±37.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Lark Sparrow in Nevada is projected to fall about 37% by 2030 — from 7.5 in 2025 to a central estimate of 4.8 (95% range 1.6–7.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±37.2%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20264.51.47.7
20274.61.47.7
20284.61.57.8
20294.71.67.8
20304.81.67.9

Lark Sparrow Survey Routes in Nevada

Routes recording Lark Sparrow in Nevada.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Majors Place5820251968
Chimney Res.4920252005
Ranchogrande2520241988
Piute Mdws1520252005
Sutcliffe1119711969
Midas1020251990
Cortez1020251971
Gardnerville 21020252025
Austin920182010
Oreana920032002
Toiyabe Nf620241989
Charleston Reservoir620242024
Fish Creek520211999
Nixon520231979
Gardnerville420051992
Virgin Creek420181995
Dobbin Creek320181993
Sand Pass220251989
Walker Can220241969
Eureka220151995
Illipah220131972
Meadow Vally220162001
Minerva220221988
Jean Lake220081973
Desert Nwr120251990

Lark Sparrow Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianaminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-mexiconorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonsouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahwashingtonwisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.