BirdAnalyst
Species · Utah · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Lark Sparrow Population Trend in Utah

All statesGrassland birds

Lark Sparrow in Utah has surged: up 305% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+305%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
105Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Lark Sparrow Trends in UtahNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Lark Sparrow has surged in Utah: up 305% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Lark Sparrow Population Forecast in Utah

If the recent trend holds, Lark Sparrow in Utah is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 8.3 (95% range 1.9–15). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±10.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+6%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
8.3Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.9–1595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±10.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Lark Sparrow in Utah is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 8.3 (95% range 1.9–15). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±10.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20268.11.615
20278.21.715
20288.21.815
20298.31.815
20308.31.915

Lark Sparrow Survey Routes in Utah

Routes recording Lark Sparrow in Utah.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Promontory8320251969
Leamington7520171992
Jensen5020251992
Canyonlands3620061991
Wendover3520111969
Gold Hill3020251991
Grantsville2720252001
Westwater2620251997
Vernon2420251992
Fayette2420251992
Wellington 32120252012
Jericho Junction2020251997
Pine Creek1920251997
Glen Canyon1820251991
Vernal1620181999
Wellington 21520112003
Timpie Spg1420031978
Willow Creek1420241986
Goose Creek Mtn.1320252002
Clive1320132002
Hardware Ranch1120231994
Canyon Rims1120251998
Johnson Can1020241987
Wellington1020021997
Salt Springs920251991

Lark Sparrow Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.