BirdAnalyst
Species · Utah · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Lark Sparrow Population Trend in Utah

All statesGrassland birds

Lark Sparrow in Utah has surged: up 300% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+300%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
102Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Lark Sparrow Trends in UtahNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Lark Sparrow has surged in Utah: up 300% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Lark Sparrow Population Forecast in Utah

If the recent trend holds, Lark Sparrow in Utah is projected to rise about 17% by 2029 — from 7.1 in 2024 to a central estimate of 8.3 (95% range 1.8–15). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±13.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+17%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
8.3Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.8–1595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±13.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Lark Sparrow in Utah is projected to rise about 17% by 2029 — from 7.1 in 2024 to a central estimate of 8.3 (95% range 1.8–15). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±13.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20258.11.615
20268.11.615
20278.21.715
20288.31.715
20298.31.815

Lark Sparrow Survey Routes in Utah

Routes recording Lark Sparrow in Utah.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Promontory7720241969
Leamington7520171992
Canyonlands3620061991
Wellington 33520242012
Wendover3520111969
Westwater2420241997
Pine Creek2220231997
Jensen2120241992
Grantsville2020242001
Goose Creek Mtn.1920232002
Notom1620241987
Vernal1620181999
Escalante1620241998
Wellington 21520112003
Timpie Spg1420031978
Willow Creek1420241986
Glen Canyon1420241991
Gold Hill1320241991
Vernon1320241992
Clive1320132002
Moquith Mtn1120241988
Hardware Ranch1120231994
Jericho Junction1120241997
Dragerton1020221986
Johnson Can1020241987

Lark Sparrow Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.