BirdAnalyst
Species · South Dakota · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Lark Sparrow Population Trend in South Dakota

All statesGrassland birds

Lark Sparrow in South Dakota has edged up: up 12% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+12%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
55Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Lark Sparrow Trends in South DakotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Lark Sparrow in South Dakota. See the full index history below.

Lark Sparrow Population Forecast in South Dakota

If the recent trend holds, Lark Sparrow in South Dakota is projected to fall about 32% by 2029 — from 2.5 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.7 (95% range 0.48–2.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±59.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-32%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.7Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.48–2.995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±59.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Lark Sparrow in South Dakota is projected to fall about 32% by 2029 — from 2.5 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.7 (95% range 0.48–2.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±59.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.70.452.9
20261.70.462.9
20271.70.462.9
20281.70.472.9
20291.70.482.9

Lark Sparrow Survey Routes in South Dakota

Routes recording Lark Sparrow in South Dakota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Pleasant Val4020241992
Promise1920151971
Rosebud1420111967
Gorman720041997
Badlands720231982
Owanka620221967
Rochford620182017
Volunteer520151967
Chamberlain420111967
Winner420241968
Lane419851968
Railroad Butte420221995
Long Lake419701970
White River420141994
French Creek420051995
Raymond319671967
Laplant320131973
Reva320241979
Ardmore320181978
Geddes220231990
Wilmot220232023
Veblen219731967
Britton219771970
Indian220241994
Cedar Pass220221967

Lark Sparrow Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianaminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-mexiconorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregontennesseetexasutahwashingtonwisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.