BirdAnalyst
Species · North Dakota · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Lark Sparrow Population Trend in North Dakota

All statesGrassland birds

Lark Sparrow in North Dakota has surged: up 363% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+363%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
47Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Lark Sparrow Trends in North DakotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Lark Sparrow has surged in North Dakota: up 362% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Lark Sparrow Population Forecast in North Dakota

If the recent trend holds, Lark Sparrow in North Dakota is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 2.3 (95% range 1.2–3.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±33.4%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-6%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.3Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.2–3.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±33.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Lark Sparrow in North Dakota is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 2.3 (95% range 1.2–3.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±33.4%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20262.21.13.3
20272.21.13.4
20282.31.13.4
20292.31.23.4
20302.31.23.5

Lark Sparrow Survey Routes in North Dakota

Routes recording Lark Sparrow in North Dakota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Zap2020241969
Denbigh1220251982
Glen Ullin920251986
Emerado820251976
Solen820252005
Golva720251979
Cooperstown620251969
Ft Yates620041968
Webster520071990
Tobacco420191968
Gorham420251968
Roosevelt Pk420191982
Edgeley320242022
Dickinson320251990
Carpio320231975
Bowman320241967
Parshall320131985
Forman220242005
Walcott220211967
Niles220212021
Regan220251968
Bentley220241988
Turtle Mtns220222010
Bowesmont 2220162016
Sydney119751975

Lark Sparrow Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianaminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-mexicoohiooklahomaoregonsouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahwashingtonwisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.