BirdAnalyst
Species · North Dakota · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Lark Sparrow Population Trend in North Dakota

All statesGrassland birds

Lark Sparrow in North Dakota has surged: up 348% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+348%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
46Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Lark Sparrow Trends in North DakotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Lark Sparrow has surged in North Dakota: up 347% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Lark Sparrow Population Forecast in North Dakota

If the recent trend holds, Lark Sparrow in North Dakota is projected to fall about 31% by 2029 — from 3.3 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.3 (95% range 1.2–3.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±39.7%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-31%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.3Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.2–3.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±39.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Lark Sparrow in North Dakota is projected to fall about 31% by 2029 — from 3.3 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.3 (95% range 1.2–3.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±39.7%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20252.21.03.3
20262.21.13.3
20272.21.13.4
20282.31.13.4
20292.31.23.4

Lark Sparrow Survey Routes in North Dakota

Routes recording Lark Sparrow in North Dakota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Denbigh2120241982
Zap2020241969
Emerado1320241976
Solen920242005
Cooperstown620241969
Ft Yates620041968
Gorham620181968
Webster520071990
Regan520221968
Golva520231979
Tobacco420191968
Roosevelt Pk420191982
Edgeley320242022
Carpio320231975
Bowman320241967
Parshall320131985
Forman220242005
Walcott220211967
Carson220241992
Niles220212021
Dickinson220241990
Dunn Center220241968
Bentley220241988
Powers Lake220011980
Douglas Crk220241988

Lark Sparrow Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianaminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-mexicoohiooklahomaoregonsouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahwashingtonwisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.