BirdAnalyst
Species · Kansas · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Lark Sparrow Population Trend in Kansas

All statesGrassland birds

Lark Sparrow in Kansas has risen sharply: up 75% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+75%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
67Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Lark Sparrow Trends in KansasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Lark Sparrow has risen sharply in Kansas: up 75% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Lark Sparrow Population Forecast in Kansas

If the recent trend holds, Lark Sparrow in Kansas is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 7.0 (95% range 4.7–9.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±12.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-8%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
7.0Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
4.7–9.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±12.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Lark Sparrow in Kansas is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 7.0 (95% range 4.7–9.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±12.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20256.74.49.1
20266.84.59.2
20276.94.59.2
20286.94.69.3
20297.04.79.4

Lark Sparrow Survey Routes in Kansas

Routes recording Lark Sparrow in Kansas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Wreford2620241967
Kanopolis2120241967
Dalton2020241968
Ashland2020211969
Hanover1820231974
Beloit 21820182005
Coats1720241967
Lincolnville1620242002
Coldwater1320221969
Damar1320162000
Phillipsburg1220221967
Plymell1220242000
Hollenberg1020231975
Trading Post1020242000
St John920191967
Covert920241968
Jewell 2920242006
Wellington820241968
Buckeye820231967
Galesburg720241967
Humboldt720221968
Dover720221968
Hays620141968
Bucyrus620242022
Morehead620242002

Lark Sparrow Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.