BirdAnalyst
Species · Kentucky · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Lark Sparrow Population Trend in Kentucky

All statesGrassland birds

Lark Sparrow in Kentucky has collapsed: down 79% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-79%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
18Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
26YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Lark Sparrow Trends in KentuckyNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Lark Sparrow has collapsed in Kentucky: down 79% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Lark Sparrow Population Forecast in Kentucky

If the recent trend holds, Lark Sparrow in Kentucky is projected to stay roughly flat through 2028, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.14). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±289.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2028TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2028 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.1495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±289.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Lark Sparrow in Kentucky is projected to stay roughly flat through 2028, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.14). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±289.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662028
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20240.000.000.14
20250.000.000.14
20260.000.000.14
20270.000.000.14
20280.000.000.14

Lark Sparrow Survey Routes in Kentucky

Routes recording Lark Sparrow in Kentucky.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Shiloh220191969
Porter219741966
Sewell Shop219661966
Hodgenville219691969
Lovelacevile120222018
Cedar Grove120232023
Iron Bridge119681967
Glencoe119781966
Buena Vista119971966
Sunnybrook119681968
Bardwell119821972
East Union119901990
Bays Fork119991999
Pleasurevill119841984
Mcbrayer119811978
Merrimac119731973
Johnsonville119671967
Hudson119681968

Lark Sparrow Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaslouisianaminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-mexiconorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonsouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahwashingtonwisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.