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Species · Louisiana · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Lark Sparrow Population Trend in Louisiana

All statesGrassland birds

Lark Sparrow in Louisiana has fallen sharply: down 74% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-74%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
22Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
49YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Lark Sparrow Trends in LouisianaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Lark Sparrow has fallen sharply in Louisiana: down 74% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Lark Sparrow Population Forecast in Louisiana

If the recent trend holds, Lark Sparrow in Louisiana is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 0.07 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.28). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±180.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-100%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.2895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±180.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Lark Sparrow in Louisiana is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 0.07 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.28). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±180.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.000.000.28
20260.000.000.28
20270.000.000.28
20280.000.000.28
20290.000.000.28

Lark Sparrow Survey Routes in Louisiana

Routes recording Lark Sparrow in Louisiana.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Fillmore419701970
Linville219991998
Many219901990
Ivan120132013
De Ridder120151969
Derry119891973
Cypress119711971
Fort Polk119751967
Chatham119711971
Clay119831972
Longstreet120231967
Floyd120102007
Marion119901990
Evelyn120242022
Frogmore120242024
Transylvania120221998
Mount Union120222000
Womack120081999
Ivan 2120162016
Derry 2119911991
Rayville 2120242024
Cheniere119961985

Lark Sparrow Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckyminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-mexiconorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonsouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahwashingtonwisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.