BirdAnalyst
Species · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Lark Sparrow

PasserellidaeGrassland birdsChondestes grammacus

Lark Sparrow has increased: up 42% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+42%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1,818RoutesSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58Years SurveyedYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

About the Lark Sparrow

The Lark Sparrow (Chondestes grammacus) is a North American member of the New World Sparrows (Passerellidae). In this analysis it is grouped with the grassland birds.

Size
4.5–7.5 in long (12–19 cm) — a small songbird (typical for the family)
Habitat
Open grasslands, prairie, pasture and hayfields.
Diet
Seeds and insects gathered from grasses and the ground.
Range
Recorded on 1,818 Breeding Bird Survey routes across 30 states, most concentrated in the Great Basin.
Family
Passerellidae · Grassland birds

Notable Lark Sparrow TrendsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Lark Sparrow. See the full index history below.

Lark Sparrow Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Lark Sparrow is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 2.2 (95% range 1.4–3.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±8.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-2%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.2Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.4–3.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±8.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Lark Sparrow is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 2.2 (95% range 1.4–3.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±8.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20252.21.43.0
20262.21.43.0
20272.21.43.0
20282.21.43.0
20292.21.43.0

Where the Lark Sparrow Is Detected

BBS routes recording Lark Sparrow, sized by most recent count.

Lark Sparrow Population Trend by State

Lark Sparrow population trend by state.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →Baseline yearThe first year of the smoothed window the trend is measured from. An earlier baseline means a longer record stands behind the number.Full methodology →Survey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
Alabama+68%198712
Arizona-69%197064
Arkansas-63%196939
California-50%1970175
Colorado+207%1970130
Idaho+23%197243
Illinois-77%196866
Indiana-38%198018
Iowa+197%196931
Kansas+75%196967
Kentucky-79%196818
Louisiana-74%196922
Minnesota+47%197024
Mississippi+239%19786
Missouri-24%196973
Montana-56%197073
Nebraska+219%196973
Nevada+819%197039
New Mexico+195%197083
North Dakota+348%196946
Ohioinsufficient datan/a2
Oklahoma-9%196968
Oregon+10%197073
South Dakota+12%196955
Tennessee+184%196815
Texas-65%1969226
Utah+300%1970102
Washington+939%197044
Wisconsin+120%197218
Wyoming-3%1970113

Lark Sparrow Population Trend by Region

Bird Conservation Regions are the ecological unit for trends.

Lark Sparrow population trend by Bird Conservation Region.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →Baseline yearThe first year of the smoothed window the trend is measured from. An earlier baseline means a longer record stands behind the number.Full methodology →Survey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
Northern Pacific Rainforest-95%197021
Great Basin+163%1970207
Northern Rockies+61%1970126
Prairie Potholes+244%196989
Boreal Hardwood Transition+62%19858
Sierra Nevada-76%197318
Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau+2%1970202
Badlands and Prairies+13%1969132
Shortgrass Prairie+2%1969132
Central Mixed Grass Prairie+18%1969129
Edwards Plateau-64%196920
Oaks and Prairies-73%196974
Eastern Tallgrass Prairie+77%1968177
Prairie Hardwood Transition+91%197222
Central Hardwoods-75%196883
West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas-84%196968
Mississippi Alluvial Valley+241%197418
Southeastern Coastal Plain+180%196921
Coastal California-46%1970103
Sonoran and Mojave Deserts+54%197043
Sierra Madre Occidental-12%197029
Chihuahuan Desert-26%196947
Tamaulipan Brushlands-22%196928
Gulf Coastal Prairie-76%196919

Lark Sparrow Conservation Status

Our route-weighted index shows it up about 42% since 1968. Grassland birds are North America's steepest-declining group, down roughly 50% since 1970 as prairie and pasture were lost.

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22. Trend is a route-weighted relative-abundance index, not an absolute population.