BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 35 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Lark Sparrow In Chihuahuan Desert

All regionsChihuahuan DesertGrassland birds

Lark Sparrow in Chihuahuan Desert has declined: down 26% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-26%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
47Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Lark Sparrow in Chihuahuan Desert. See the full index history below.

Lark Sparrow In Chihuahuan Desert Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Lark Sparrow in Chihuahuan Desert is projected to rise about 10% by 2029 — from 3.6 in 2024 to a central estimate of 4.0 (95% range 1.1–6.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±50.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+10%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4.0Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.1–6.995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±50.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Lark Sparrow in Chihuahuan Desert is projected to rise about 10% by 2029 — from 3.6 in 2024 to a central estimate of 4.0 (95% range 1.1–6.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±50.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20254.01.17.0
20264.01.17.0
20274.01.16.9
20284.01.16.9
20294.01.16.9

Routes In Chihuahuan Desert

Routes recording Lark Sparrow in Chihuahuan Desert.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Capitan Mtn.NEW-MEXICO592017
PumpvilleTEXAS322024
Devils R CynTEXAS272024
OzonaTEXAS232022
MarfaTEXAS152024
LakewoodNEW-MEXICO142021
PinonNEW-MEXICO142024
RoswellNEW-MEXICO132023
LongfellowTEXAS132024
GirvinTEXAS72017
Ft. DavisTEXAS72023
San AntonioNEW-MEXICO51977
LaborcitaNEW-MEXICO42015
AltudaTEXAS42023
CornudasTEXAS42015
GageNEW-MEXICO32006
QueenNEW-MEXICO32021
ComstockTEXAS32022
Hot SpringsTEXAS32023
LangtryTEXAS32000
Coyanda DrawTEXAS32023
DemingNEW-MEXICO21975
Bitter LakeNEW-MEXICO22023
EscondidaNEW-MEXICO22015
ValentineTEXAS21987

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.