BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 35 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Lark Sparrow In Chihuahuan Desert

All regionsChihuahuan DesertGrassland birds

Lark Sparrow in Chihuahuan Desert has edged down: down 19% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-19%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
48Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Lark Sparrow in Chihuahuan Desert. See the full index history below.

Lark Sparrow In Chihuahuan Desert Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Lark Sparrow in Chihuahuan Desert is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 4.0 (95% range 1.1–6.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±25.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+9%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4.0Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.1–6.995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±25.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Lark Sparrow in Chihuahuan Desert is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 4.0 (95% range 1.1–6.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±25.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20264.01.16.9
20274.01.16.9
20284.01.16.9
20294.01.16.9
20304.01.16.9

Routes In Chihuahuan Desert

Routes recording Lark Sparrow in Chihuahuan Desert.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Capitan Mtn.NEW-MEXICO592017
Ozona 2TEXAS262025
OzonaTEXAS232022
PumpvilleTEXAS182025
LakewoodNEW-MEXICO142021
PinonNEW-MEXICO142024
ComstockTEXAS142025
RoswellNEW-MEXICO112025
Devils R CynTEXAS92025
Bear MtnTEXAS82025
LongfellowTEXAS72025
Red RockNEW-MEXICO62025
MarathonTEXAS62025
MarfaTEXAS62025
San AntonioNEW-MEXICO51977
Ft. DavisTEXAS52025
CarrizozoNEW-MEXICO42025
LaborcitaNEW-MEXICO42015
AltudaTEXAS42023
CornudasTEXAS42015
GageNEW-MEXICO32006
Bitter LakeNEW-MEXICO32025
QueenNEW-MEXICO32021
Hot SpringsTEXAS32023
LangtryTEXAS32000

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.