BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 16 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Lark Sparrow In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau

All regionsSouthern Rockies / Colorado PlateauGrassland birds

Lark Sparrow in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau has held roughly steady: up 2% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+2%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
202Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Lark Sparrow in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau. See the full index history below.

Lark Sparrow In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Lark Sparrow in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau is projected to fall about 18% by 2029 — from 5.1 in 2024 to a central estimate of 4.2 (95% range 2.6–5.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±10.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-18%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4.2Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.6–5.895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±10.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Lark Sparrow in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau is projected to fall about 18% by 2029 — from 5.1 in 2024 to a central estimate of 4.2 (95% range 2.6–5.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±10.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20254.12.55.7
20264.12.55.7
20274.12.55.8
20284.22.55.8
20294.22.65.8

Routes In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau

Routes recording Lark Sparrow in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
WalsenburgCOLORADO522024
MountainairNEW-MEXICO422024
Mt TrumbullARIZONA401993
CanyonlandsUTAH362006
Wellington 3UTAH352024
Baxter PassCOLORADO342024
La Plata 2NEW-MEXICO342016
Douglas PassCOLORADO312024
La PlataNEW-MEXICO292013
AngoraCOLORADO252024
WestwaterUTAH242024
AztecNEW-MEXICO231989
JensenUTAH212024
CapulinNEW-MEXICO181994
De BequeCOLORADO172024
MoscaCOLORADO162017
CokedaleCOLORADO162024
FarmingtonNEW-MEXICO161987
Claunch 2NEW-MEXICO162024
NotomUTAH162024
VernalUTAH162018
EscalanteUTAH162024
ToroweapARIZONA152024
Wellington 2UTAH152011
Sybille CynWYOMING152024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.