BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 17 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Lark Sparrow In Badlands and Prairies

All regionsBadlands and PrairiesGrassland birds

Lark Sparrow in Badlands and Prairies has edged up: up 13% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+13%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
132Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Lark Sparrow in Badlands and Prairies. See the full index history below.

Lark Sparrow In Badlands and Prairies Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Lark Sparrow in Badlands and Prairies is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 5.8 (95% range 3.2–8.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±45.1%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+7%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
5.8Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
3.2–8.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±45.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Lark Sparrow in Badlands and Prairies is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 5.8 (95% range 3.2–8.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±45.1%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20255.73.18.3
20265.73.18.3
20275.83.28.4
20285.83.28.4
20295.83.28.4

Routes In Badlands and Prairies

Routes recording Lark Sparrow in Badlands and Prairies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
NewcastleWYOMING452009
Pleasant ValSOUTH-DAKOTA402024
CusterMONTANA352022
BrandenbergMONTANA332019
Chuffey SpringMONTANA272024
ForsythMONTANA252023
Reed PointMONTANA232024
ArvadaWYOMING222024
Custer 2MONTANA212024
SchoonoverWYOMING212024
ZapNORTH-DAKOTA202024
SeelyWYOMING202000
PromiseSOUTH-DAKOTA192015
CrookstonNEBRASKA172024
RedbirdWYOMING171989
RosebudSOUTH-DAKOTA142011
HighlightWYOMING132007
Miles CityMONTANA122024
Cabin CreekMONTANA122024
BucknumWYOMING122024
BrusettMONTANA112024
JordanMONTANA102024
IngomarMONTANA92024
LindsayMONTANA92024
SolenNORTH-DAKOTA92024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.