BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 11 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Lark Sparrow In Prairie Potholes

All regionsPrairie PotholesGrassland birds

Lark Sparrow in Prairie Potholes has surged: up 264% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+264%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
93Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Lark Sparrow has surged in Prairie Potholes: up 264% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Lark Sparrow In Prairie Potholes Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Lark Sparrow in Prairie Potholes is projected to fall about 15% by 2030 — from 1.5 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.3 (95% range 0.78–1.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±20.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-15%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.3Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.78–1.895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±20.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Lark Sparrow in Prairie Potholes is projected to fall about 15% by 2030 — from 1.5 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.3 (95% range 0.78–1.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±20.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.30.721.8
20271.30.741.8
20281.30.751.8
20291.30.771.8
20301.30.781.8

Routes In Prairie Potholes

Routes recording Lark Sparrow in Prairie Potholes.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Eagle CreekNEBRASKA142025
GlasgowMONTANA122025
DenbighNORTH-DAKOTA122025
MidwayNEBRASKA82025
Winside 2NEBRASKA82022
EmeradoNORTH-DAKOTA82025
TildenNEBRASKA72025
GormanSOUTH-DAKOTA72004
PoncaNEBRASKA62025
CooperstownNORTH-DAKOTA62025
OkleeMINNESOTA51989
Wolf PointMONTANA52024
WebsterNORTH-DAKOTA52007
ClareIOWA42019
SunburstMONTANA41991
SpartaNEBRASKA42025
MadisonNEBRASKA42025
LaneSOUTH-DAKOTA41985
Long LakeSOUTH-DAKOTA41970
HuntleyMINNESOTA32025
ChinookMONTANA32023
EdgeleyNORTH-DAKOTA32024
CarpioNORTH-DAKOTA32023
ParshallNORTH-DAKOTA32013
RaymondSOUTH-DAKOTA31967

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.