BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 11 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Lark Sparrow In Prairie Potholes

All regionsPrairie PotholesGrassland birds

Lark Sparrow in Prairie Potholes has surged: up 244% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+244%Since 1969
89Routes In Region
57Years

Notable Signals

long arc increasecomputed index

Lark Sparrow has surged in Prairie Potholes: up 244% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Lark Sparrow in Prairie Potholes is projected to fall about 21% by 2029 — from 1.6 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.3 (95% range 0.74–1.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±18.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-21%Change by 2029
1.3Projected 2029 index
0.74–1.895% range
±18.4%Backtest error
19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20251.20.691.7
20261.20.701.8
20271.20.711.8
20281.30.731.8
20291.30.741.8

Routes In Prairie Potholes

Routes recording Lark Sparrow in Prairie Potholes.
SpartaNEBRASKA252021
GlasgowMONTANA212024
DenbighNORTH-DAKOTA212024
Eagle CreekNEBRASKA142024
EmeradoNORTH-DAKOTA132024
VirgelleMONTANA102011
Winside 2NEBRASKA82022
GormanSOUTH-DAKOTA72004
RedstoneMONTANA62024
CooperstownNORTH-DAKOTA62024
OkleeMINNESOTA51989
Wolf PointMONTANA52024
MidwayNEBRASKA52023
WebsterNORTH-DAKOTA52007
ReganNORTH-DAKOTA52022
ClareIOWA42019
SunburstMONTANA41991
TildenNEBRASKA42024
LaneSOUTH-DAKOTA41985
Long LakeSOUTH-DAKOTA41970
MccallsburgIOWA32024
ChinookMONTANA32023
SacoMONTANA32024
PoncaNEBRASKA32024
EdgeleyNORTH-DAKOTA32024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.