BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 19 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Lark Sparrow In Central Mixed Grass Prairie

All regionsCentral Mixed Grass PrairieGrassland birds

Lark Sparrow in Central Mixed Grass Prairie has edged up: up 18% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+18%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
129Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Lark Sparrow in Central Mixed Grass Prairie. See the full index history below.

Lark Sparrow In Central Mixed Grass Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Lark Sparrow in Central Mixed Grass Prairie is projected to rise about 20% by 2029 — from 12 in 2024 to a central estimate of 14 (95% range 7.7–21). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±11.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+20%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
14Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
7.7–2195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±11.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Lark Sparrow in Central Mixed Grass Prairie is projected to rise about 20% by 2029 — from 12 in 2024 to a central estimate of 14 (95% range 7.7–21). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±11.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025147.621
2026147.721
2027147.721
2028147.721
2029147.721

Routes In Central Mixed Grass Prairie

Routes recording Lark Sparrow in Central Mixed Grass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
EldoradoTEXAS692023
MullenNEBRASKA522023
ArthurNEBRASKA492024
PhrosoOKLAHOMA432024
RosstonOKLAHOMA412018
Pear ValleyTEXAS412024
GirardTEXAS392023
NenzelNEBRASKA382024
GordonNEBRASKA372024
WoodwardOKLAHOMA342024
CoopertonOKLAHOMA332024
Piester LakeNEBRASKA322024
ChildressTEXAS322024
CashionOKLAHOMA312024
LookoutOKLAHOMA302023
ColonyOKLAHOMA301995
HollisOKLAHOMA292024
SicklesOKLAHOMA282021
Wichita MtnsOKLAHOMA271994
WilliamsTEXAS262024
ChesterOKLAHOMA251988
CharlieTEXAS252024
ReedOKLAHOMA242019
Ft Sill WestOKLAHOMA231994
BeaverOKLAHOMA222018

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.