BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 19 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Lark Sparrow In Central Mixed Grass Prairie

All regionsCentral Mixed Grass PrairieGrassland birds

Lark Sparrow in Central Mixed Grass Prairie has edged up: up 20% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+20%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
130Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Lark Sparrow in Central Mixed Grass Prairie. See the full index history below.

Lark Sparrow In Central Mixed Grass Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Lark Sparrow in Central Mixed Grass Prairie is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 14 (95% range 7.8–21). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±5.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-0%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
14Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
7.8–2195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±5.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Lark Sparrow in Central Mixed Grass Prairie is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 14 (95% range 7.8–21). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±5.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026147.721
2027147.721
2028147.821
2029147.821
2030147.821

Routes In Central Mixed Grass Prairie

Routes recording Lark Sparrow in Central Mixed Grass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
GrimesOKLAHOMA702025
EldoradoTEXAS692023
MullenNEBRASKA522023
KanopolisKANSAS512025
LookoutOKLAHOMA502025
RinggoldNEBRASKA462025
PhrosoOKLAHOMA432025
ArthurNEBRASKA412025
RosstonOKLAHOMA412018
GordonNEBRASKA372025
Crescent LkNEBRASKA342025
NenzelNEBRASKA342025
Pear ValleyTEXAS342025
CoopertonOKLAHOMA332025
HollisOKLAHOMA332025
WoodwardOKLAHOMA322025
CashionOKLAHOMA312024
ColonyOKLAHOMA301995
GirardTEXAS302025
SicklesOKLAHOMA282021
Wichita Mts WestOKLAHOMA282025
Wichita MtnsOKLAHOMA271994
Piester LakeNEBRASKA262025
ChesterOKLAHOMA251988
ReedOKLAHOMA242019

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.