BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 33 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Lark Sparrow In Sonoran and Mojave Deserts

All regionsSonoran and Mojave DesertsGrassland birds

Lark Sparrow in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts has risen sharply: up 54% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+54%Since 1970
43Routes In Region
56Years

Notable Signals

long arc increasecomputed index

Lark Sparrow has risen sharply in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts: up 54% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Lark Sparrow in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts is projected to rise about 45% by 2029 — from 0.23 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.34 (95% range 0.00–0.82). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±163.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+45%Change by 2029
0.34Projected 2029 index
0.00–0.8295% range
±163.7%Backtest error
19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20250.330.000.82
20260.330.000.82
20270.340.000.82
20280.340.000.82
20290.340.000.82

Routes In Sonoran and Mojave Deserts

Routes recording Lark Sparrow in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts.
OnyxCALIFORNIA162015
FlorenceARIZONA81975
Lone PineCALIFORNIA71998
Greenwater VCALIFORNIA71998
Palo VerdeARIZONA62013
DatelandARIZONA52016
Cactus ForestARIZONA42019
Red Rock 2ARIZONA32023
BarstowCALIFORNIA31973
CimaCALIFORNIA31971
Willow Springs 2CALIFORNIA32024
OatmanARIZONA22006
HopeARIZONA22004
Cutter 2ARIZONA22018
Palo VerdeCALIFORNIA22015
Anza BorregoCALIFORNIA21998
BlytheCALIFORNIA21979
Alamo RiverCALIFORNIA22018
Ft IrwinCALIFORNIA21975
Kelso ValleyCALIFORNIA22024
Joshua TreeCALIFORNIA21995
Jean LakeNEVADA22008
Squaw PeakARIZONA11969
QuartzsiteARIZONA11992
LagunaARIZONA11978

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.