BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 36 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Lark Sparrow In Tamaulipan Brushlands

All regionsTamaulipan BrushlandsGrassland birds

Lark Sparrow in Tamaulipan Brushlands has held roughly steady: up 4% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+4%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
28Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Lark Sparrow in Tamaulipan Brushlands. See the full index history below.

Lark Sparrow In Tamaulipan Brushlands Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Lark Sparrow in Tamaulipan Brushlands is projected to fall about 57% by 2030 — from 19 in 2025 to a central estimate of 8.4 (95% range 0.31–17). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±26.7%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-57%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
8.4Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.31–1795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±26.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Lark Sparrow in Tamaulipan Brushlands is projected to fall about 57% by 2030 — from 19 in 2025 to a central estimate of 8.4 (95% range 0.31–17). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±26.7%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20268.70.5517
20278.60.4917
20288.60.4317
20298.50.3717
20308.40.3117

Routes In Tamaulipan Brushlands

Routes recording Lark Sparrow in Tamaulipan Brushlands.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
HondoTEXAS782025
George WestTEXAS542025
RaymondvilleTEXAS432025
Pedro CreekTEXAS432005
Encinal 2TEXAS232025
RachalTEXAS212023
Cavasara Cr.TEXAS132023
El SauzTEXAS122023
ProgresoTEXAS122011
La PryorTEXAS112017
HeidelbergTEXAS112024
Catarina 3TEXAS102025
Agua NuevaTEXAS92023
EncinalTEXAS92010
ZapataTEXAS71987
Catarina 2TEXAS72017
Millett 2TEXAS72024
DilleyTEXAS62024
MillettTEXAS52012
KingsvilleTEXAS42024
Mirando CityTEXAS42025
LaredoTEXAS42018
SejitaTEXAS32024
CatarinaTEXAS22010
GuerraTEXAS22025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.