BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 27 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Lark Sparrow In Southeastern Coastal Plain

All regionsSoutheastern Coastal PlainGrassland birds

Lark Sparrow in Southeastern Coastal Plain has surged: up 135% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+135%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
22Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
44YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Lark Sparrow in Southeastern Coastal Plain. See the full index history below.

Lark Sparrow In Southeastern Coastal Plain Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Lark Sparrow in Southeastern Coastal Plain is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.06 (95% range 0.01–0.12). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±40.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.06Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.01–0.1295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±40.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Lark Sparrow in Southeastern Coastal Plain is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.06 (95% range 0.01–0.12). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±40.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.060.010.11
20270.060.010.11
20280.060.010.12
20290.060.010.12
20300.060.010.12

Routes In Southeastern Coastal Plain

Routes recording Lark Sparrow in Southeastern Coastal Plain.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
UticaMISSISSIPPI31968
MillryALABAMA21981
Rock ChapelALABAMA22024
ShilohKENTUCKY22019
AberdeenMISSISSIPPI22025
St FlorianALABAMA12022
BillingsleyALABAMA12016
WhitehouseALABAMA11994
EpesALABAMA12015
AutaugavilleALABAMA12012
LovelacevileKENTUCKY12022
CorinthMISSISSIPPI12025
TupeloMISSISSIPPI12018
MaconMISSISSIPPI12025
Trace LeeMISSISSIPPI12014
BrownsvilleTENNESSEE12023
TibbsTENNESSEE12025
WhitevilleTENNESSEE12012
MansfieldTENNESSEE12025
SweetlipsTENNESSEE11987
SilertonTENNESSEE12002
HumboldtTENNESSEE12025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.