BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 27 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Lark Sparrow In Southeastern Coastal Plain

All regionsSoutheastern Coastal PlainGrassland birds

Lark Sparrow in Southeastern Coastal Plain has surged: up 180% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+180%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
21Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
43YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Lark Sparrow has surged in Southeastern Coastal Plain: up 180% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Lark Sparrow In Southeastern Coastal Plain Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Lark Sparrow in Southeastern Coastal Plain is projected to fall about 15% by 2029 — from 0.07 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.06 (95% range 0.01–0.12). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±34.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-15%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.06Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.01–0.1295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±34.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Lark Sparrow in Southeastern Coastal Plain is projected to fall about 15% by 2029 — from 0.07 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.06 (95% range 0.01–0.12). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±34.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.060.010.11
20260.060.010.12
20270.060.010.12
20280.060.010.12
20290.060.010.12

Routes In Southeastern Coastal Plain

Routes recording Lark Sparrow in Southeastern Coastal Plain.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
MaconMISSISSIPPI42024
UticaMISSISSIPPI31968
MillryALABAMA21981
Rock ChapelALABAMA22024
ShilohKENTUCKY22019
AberdeenMISSISSIPPI22024
MansfieldTENNESSEE22024
HumboldtTENNESSEE22024
St FlorianALABAMA12022
BillingsleyALABAMA12016
WhitehouseALABAMA11994
EpesALABAMA12015
AutaugavilleALABAMA12012
LovelacevileKENTUCKY12022
TupeloMISSISSIPPI12018
Trace LeeMISSISSIPPI12014
BrownsvilleTENNESSEE12023
TibbsTENNESSEE12024
WhitevilleTENNESSEE12012
SweetlipsTENNESSEE11987
SilertonTENNESSEE12002

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.