BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 18 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Lark Sparrow In Shortgrass Prairie

All regionsShortgrass PrairieGrassland birds

Lark Sparrow in Shortgrass Prairie has held roughly steady: up 2% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+2%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
132Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Lark Sparrow in Shortgrass Prairie. See the full index history below.

Lark Sparrow In Shortgrass Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Lark Sparrow in Shortgrass Prairie is projected to rise about 18% by 2029 — from 11 in 2024 to a central estimate of 14 (95% range 9.2–18). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±26.5%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+18%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
14Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
9.2–1895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±26.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Lark Sparrow in Shortgrass Prairie is projected to rise about 18% by 2029 — from 11 in 2024 to a central estimate of 14 (95% range 9.2–18). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±26.5%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025139.218
2026139.218
2027139.218
2028149.218
2029149.218

Routes In Shortgrass Prairie

Routes recording Lark Sparrow in Shortgrass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
TrincheraCOLORADO1692022
Mica ButteCOLORADO741987
Clear LakeOKLAHOMA642024
NinaviewCOLORADO552024
FeltOKLAHOMA552024
Cone MtnCOLORADO452024
CrawfordNEBRASKA402024
VariaderoNEW-MEXICO392022
Doyle BridgeCOLORADO361997
DaltonNEBRASKA352024
PinneoCOLORADO332019
CrowleyCOLORADO312024
KirkCOLORADO312023
BoyeroCOLORADO292017
BethuneCOLORADO282019
SabinosoNEW-MEXICO282021
FarleyNEW-MEXICO252024
VillegreenCOLORADO242024
PepNEW-MEXICO242024
Agate 2NEBRASKA232024
SedanNEW-MEXICO232024
Arsenal 2COLORADO222024
TexlineTEXAS222024
HobbsNEW-MEXICO212024
SkellytownTEXAS212024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.