BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 18 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Lark Sparrow In Shortgrass Prairie

All regionsShortgrass PrairieGrassland birds

Lark Sparrow in Shortgrass Prairie has held roughly steady: down 9% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-9%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
132Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Lark Sparrow in Shortgrass Prairie. See the full index history below.

Lark Sparrow In Shortgrass Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Lark Sparrow in Shortgrass Prairie is projected to rise about 54% by 2030 — from 8.5 in 2025 to a central estimate of 13 (95% range 8.7–18). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±36.3%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+54%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
13Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
8.7–1895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±36.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Lark Sparrow in Shortgrass Prairie is projected to rise about 54% by 2030 — from 8.5 in 2025 to a central estimate of 13 (95% range 8.7–18). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±36.3%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026138.718
2027138.718
2028138.718
2029138.718
2030138.718

Routes In Shortgrass Prairie

Routes recording Lark Sparrow in Shortgrass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Mica ButteCOLORADO741987
NinaviewCOLORADO552024
FeltOKLAHOMA552024
Clear LakeOKLAHOMA542025
Cone MtnCOLORADO452024
GrenvilleNEW-MEXICO422025
TrincheraCOLORADO412025
VariaderoNEW-MEXICO392022
FarleyNEW-MEXICO372025
Doyle BridgeCOLORADO361997
CrowleyCOLORADO312024
KirkCOLORADO312023
BoyeroCOLORADO292017
BethuneCOLORADO282019
SabinosoNEW-MEXICO282021
VillegreenCOLORADO242024
PepNEW-MEXICO242024
CactusTEXAS242025
Arsenal 2COLORADO212025
SedanNEW-MEXICO212025
DaltonNEBRASKA192025
Murray LakeNEBRASKA192025
PinneoCOLORADO172025
CampoCOLORADO172025
CrawfordNEBRASKA172025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.