BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 22 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Lark Sparrow In Eastern Tallgrass Prairie

All regionsEastern Tallgrass PrairieGrassland birds

Lark Sparrow in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie has surged: up 77% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+77%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
177Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Lark Sparrow has surged in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie: up 77% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Lark Sparrow In Eastern Tallgrass Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Lark Sparrow in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 1.1 (95% range 0.73–1.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±12.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+3%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.1Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.73–1.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±12.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Lark Sparrow in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 1.1 (95% range 0.73–1.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±12.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.10.691.5
20261.10.701.5
20271.10.711.5
20281.10.721.5
20291.10.731.5

Routes In Eastern Tallgrass Prairie

Routes recording Lark Sparrow in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
WrefordKANSAS262024
LincolnvilleKANSAS162024
NorborneMISSOURI122023
Trading PostKANSAS102024
PiersonIOWA92014
McfallMISSOURI92024
MurdockNEBRASKA92024
WainwrightOKLAHOMA92013
WashtaIOWA82014
LyonsNEBRASKA82024
KeetonvilleOKLAHOMA82022
GalesburgKANSAS72024
HumboldtKANSAS72022
DoverKANSAS72022
FrazierMISSOURI72024
New PointMISSOURI72024
EmdenMISSOURI72024
BucyrusKANSAS62024
MoreheadKANSAS62024
BarclayKANSAS52024
SenecaKANSAS52022
ReeceKANSAS52024
Le LoupKANSAS52021
ClarksdaleILLINOIS41971
PrairieburgIOWA41980

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.