BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 22 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Lark Sparrow In Eastern Tallgrass Prairie

All regionsEastern Tallgrass PrairieGrassland birds

Lark Sparrow in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie has risen sharply: up 56% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+56%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
179Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Lark Sparrow has risen sharply in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie: up 56% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Lark Sparrow In Eastern Tallgrass Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Lark Sparrow in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie is projected to rise about 43% by 2030 — from 0.78 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.1 (95% range 0.72–1.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±15.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+43%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.1Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.72–1.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±15.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Lark Sparrow in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie is projected to rise about 43% by 2030 — from 0.78 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.1 (95% range 0.72–1.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±15.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.10.671.5
20271.10.691.5
20281.10.701.5
20291.10.711.5
20301.10.721.5

Routes In Eastern Tallgrass Prairie

Routes recording Lark Sparrow in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
WrefordKANSAS262024
LincolnvilleKANSAS162024
NorborneMISSOURI122023
WainwrightOKLAHOMA92013
ThurstonNEBRASKA82025
KeetonvilleOKLAHOMA82022
GalesburgKANSAS72025
HumboldtKANSAS72022
DoverKANSAS72022
FrazierMISSOURI72024
McfallMISSOURI72025
New PointMISSOURI72025
EmdenMISSOURI72024
JohnsonNEBRASKA72025
BarclayKANSAS62025
Gretna 2NEBRASKA62025
MurdockNEBRASKA62025
EllinorKANSAS52025
SenecaKANSAS52022
Le LoupKANSAS52021
OlsburgKANSAS52025
New HamptonMISSOURI52025
ClarksdaleILLINOIS41971
WalesIOWA42025
PrairieburgIOWA41980

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.