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Species · BCR 25 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Lark Sparrow In West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas

All regionsWest Gulf Coastal Plain / OuachitasGrassland birds

Lark Sparrow in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas has collapsed: down 77% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-77%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
68Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Lark Sparrow has collapsed in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas: down 77% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Lark Sparrow In West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Lark Sparrow in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas is projected to fall about 94% by 2030 — from 1.4 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.08 (95% range 0.00–1.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±55.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-94%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.08Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±55.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Lark Sparrow in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas is projected to fall about 94% by 2030 — from 1.4 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.08 (95% range 0.00–1.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±55.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.290.001.5
20270.240.001.4
20280.190.001.4
20290.140.001.3
20300.080.001.3

Routes In West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas

Routes recording Lark Sparrow in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
ChandlerTEXAS252004
PhillipsOKLAHOMA222025
MatoyOKLAHOMA142025
AthensTEXAS92025
SandbluffOKLAHOMA72025
Big CedarOKLAHOMA62024
CrossroadsTEXAS62019
PocolaOKLAHOMA52015
Town BluffTEXAS51990
Chandler 2TEXAS52024
SmyrnaTEXAS52010
FillmoreLOUISIANA41970
Smyrna 2TEXAS42025
PoyenARKANSAS32005
IndianolaOKLAHOMA32025
PushmatahaOKLAHOMA32023
Liberty HillTEXAS32025
WechesTEXAS32025
RamseyARKANSAS21990
HopeARKANSAS21977
MassardARKANSAS22014
PrincetonARKANSAS22021
Hatfield 2ARKANSAS22023
ManyLOUISIANA21990
LinvilleLOUISIANA21999

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.