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Species · BCR 25 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Lark Sparrow In West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas

All regionsWest Gulf Coastal Plain / OuachitasGrassland birds

Lark Sparrow in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas has collapsed: down 84% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-84%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
68Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Lark Sparrow has collapsed in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas: down 84% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Lark Sparrow In West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Lark Sparrow in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas is projected to fall about 93% by 2029 — from 0.71 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.05 (95% range 0.00–1.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±49.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-93%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.05Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±49.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Lark Sparrow in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas is projected to fall about 93% by 2029 — from 0.71 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.05 (95% range 0.00–1.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±49.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.270.001.4
20260.210.001.4
20270.160.001.3
20280.100.001.3
20290.050.001.2

Routes In West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas

Routes recording Lark Sparrow in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
ChandlerTEXAS252004
PhillipsOKLAHOMA222008
IndianolaOKLAHOMA92024
SandbluffOKLAHOMA91995
AthensTEXAS82024
Big CedarOKLAHOMA62024
CrossroadsTEXAS62019
MatoyOKLAHOMA52000
PocolaOKLAHOMA52015
Town BluffTEXAS51990
Chandler 2TEXAS52024
SmyrnaTEXAS52010
FillmoreLOUISIANA41970
PoyenARKANSAS32005
PushmatahaOKLAHOMA32023
RamseyARKANSAS21990
HopeARKANSAS21977
MassardARKANSAS22014
PrincetonARKANSAS22021
Hatfield 2ARKANSAS22023
ManyLOUISIANA21990
LinvilleLOUISIANA21999
BlancoOKLAHOMA22003
GoodwaterOKLAHOMA22019
BethelOKLAHOMA22023

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.