BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 24 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Lark Sparrow In Central Hardwoods

All regionsCentral HardwoodsGrassland birds

Lark Sparrow in Central Hardwoods has collapsed: down 78% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-78%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
83Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Lark Sparrow has collapsed in Central Hardwoods: down 78% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Lark Sparrow In Central Hardwoods Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Lark Sparrow in Central Hardwoods is projected to rise about 12% by 2030 — from 0.12 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.13 (95% range 0.00–0.36). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±325.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+12%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.13Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.3695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±325.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Lark Sparrow in Central Hardwoods is projected to rise about 12% by 2030 — from 0.12 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.13 (95% range 0.00–0.36). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±325.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.140.000.38
20270.140.000.37
20280.140.000.37
20290.130.000.37
20300.130.000.36

Routes In Central Hardwoods

Routes recording Lark Sparrow in Central Hardwoods.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Wheeler DamALABAMA62025
CassvilleMISSOURI62022
FultonARKANSAS52023
RussellARKANSAS42021
CraneMISSOURI31994
BaronOKLAHOMA32023
ComptonARKANSAS21976
Ravenden SpringsARKANSAS22010
RoyaltonILLINOIS22023
HodgenvilleKENTUCKY21969
PorterKENTUCKY21974
Sewell ShopKENTUCKY21966
PinevilleMISSOURI21991
SedaliaMISSOURI22014
DiamondMISSOURI22015
RueterMISSOURI22022
ColcordOKLAHOMA22014
Belotes BendTENNESSEE21970
BradyvilleTENNESSEE21966
ElkmontALABAMA12024
CourtlandALABAMA12021
Carter GroveALABAMA12023
RupertARKANSAS11974
LurtonARKANSAS12002
ZionARKANSAS12025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.